UnitedHealth Group Incorporated UNH is set to report second-quarter 2026 results on July 16, 2026, before the opening bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $4.84 per share on revenues of $110.05 billion.
Second-quarter earnings estimates witnessed one downward revision and no upward movement over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates an increase of 18.6% from the year-ago reported number. But the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decline of 1.4%.
For the current year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for UnitedHealth’s revenues is pegged at $443.74 billion, implying a decline of 0.9% year over year. However, the consensus mark for current-year earnings per share is pegged at $18.32, implying an improvement of 12.1% on a year-over-year basis.
UnitedHealth beat the consensus estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 0.8%. This is depicted in the figure below.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated price-eps-surprise | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated Quote
Q2 Earnings Whispers for UNH
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.
UNH currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What’s Shaping UNH’s Q2 Results?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium revenues for the second quarter indicates a 2.2% year-over-year decline, whereas our model estimate suggests a 3.1% fall. Lower contributions from both the UnitedHealthcare division and Optum Health are expected to have caused the decrease.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UnitedHealthcare’s total domestic commercial customers suggests a 1.5% year-over-year decline, whereas our estimate implies a 1.6% slip. The consensus mark for Medicare Advantage members indicates an 11% year-over-year decrease. The same for Medicaid memberships implies a 6.5% fall from the year-ago level. These are likely to have pushed total memberships in the domestic market down from the year-ago period. The consensus estimate implies around 3.6% decline year over year. These are likely to have affected its revenues in the second quarter.
Nevertheless, better medical cost management is likely to have improved its medical care ratio in the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNH’s medical care ratio is pegged at 88.6%, down from 89.4% in the year-ago quarter.
As such, the consensus mark for UnitedHealthcare’s operating income signals 40.7% year-over-year jump. Moreover, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for operating income from the total Optum business segment suggests a 7.8% year-over-year increase.
UNH’s Price Performance & Valuation
UnitedHealth's stock has gained 28.6% in the year-to-date period compared with the industry’s growth of 28.5%. Its peers, such as Humana Inc. HUM and Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH, have jumped 53.1% and 34.4%, respectively, during this time. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has increased 10.7%.
YTD Price Performance – UNH, HUM, MOH, Industry & S&P 500
Now, let’s look at the value UnitedHealth offers investors at current levels.
UNH is trading at 21.63X forward 12-month earnings, above its five-year median of 19.20X, and the industry’s average of 18.48X. In comparison, Humana and Molina Healthcare are currently trading at 32.21X and 33.41X, respectively.
How Should You Play UNH Stock Now?
UnitedHealth heads into its second-quarter 2026 earnings report with high expectations, as its results are likely to offer an important read on broader trends across the managed-care industry. The company continues to grapple with regulatory investigations, policy uncertainty and elevated healthcare utilization, all of which could pressure sentiment in the near term. Membership declines across certain businesses also remain a concern, though improved medical cost management is expected to support profitability.
At the same time, UnitedHealth's unmatched scale, diversified healthcare platform and expanding data capabilities continue to support its long-term growth story. The company's efforts to reshape the pharmacy benefit management model through a more transparent, fee-based approach could also strengthen its competitive positioning over time.
While UNH trades above its historical median valuation and the industry average, it remains less expensive than peers like Humana and Molina Healthcare. With a favorable long-term outlook and improving investor confidence regarding execution under CEO Stephen J. Hemsley, the stock appears well positioned. Investors may consider gradually accumulating shares while closely monitoring the upcoming earnings report and developments on the regulatory front.
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.
This top pick is a little-known satellite-based communications firm. Space is projected to become a trillion dollar industry, and this company's customer base is growing fast. Analysts have forecasted a major revenue breakout in 2025. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like Hims & Hers Health, which shot up +209%.
Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Free Stock Analysis Report
Humana Inc. (HUM): Free Stock Analysis Report
Molina Healthcare, Inc (MOH): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).