Delta Air Lines DAL is scheduled to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 9, before the market opens.
The airline exits the September-end quarter amid elevated fuel and non-fuel cost pressures, which are likely to have weighed on profitability. The lingering impact of the refinery outage and higher operating expenses may also have pressured the bottom line despite healthy travel demand.
DAL’s Q3 Expectations
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for DAL’s third-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.96 per share, indicating a 14.6% year-over-year increase. The measure has been revised 10.5% downward over the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for revenues is pinned at $17.70 billion, indicating a 6.2% increase from the third-quarter 2025 actuals.
For 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $5.99 per share, indicating a 2.9% year-over-year increase, and has been revised 8.4% upward over the past 60 days. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $66.7 billion, indicating a 5.2% increase from 2025 actuals.
DAL has an impressive earnings surprise history, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters. The average beat is 5.5%.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Delta Air Lines, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Delta Air Lines, Inc. Quote
Factors Likely to Have Influenced DAL’s Q3 Performance
Elevated Fuel Costs: Fuel expenses are likely to have weighed on Delta’s third-quarter profitability. Management expected total fuel expense to be roughly 40% higher year over year in the September quarter. The company’s outlook assumed an all-in fuel price of approximately $3.15 per gallon, including a 5-cent refinery benefit.
Non-Fuel Cost Pressure: Higher non-fuel costs are also likely to have hurt the bottom line. Management expected non-fuel unit-cost performance to improve only modestly in the September quarter, with further improvement anticipated in the December quarter as operational investments gained traction and capacity growth normalized.
Refinery Outage: The lingering impact of Delta’s refinery outage is likely to have added to cost pressure in the quarter under review. Management expected the outage to result in a 5-7 cents per gallon headwind in the third quarter of 2026. Although the refinery was still expected to provide a net benefit of about 5 cents per gallon, the outage likely reduced some of the protection against elevated fuel costs.
Higher Employee and Operating Expenses: Elevated labor and operating costs are also expected to have constrained earnings. Delta continued to invest in crew resilience and operational capabilities, while higher employee compensation and staffing-related expenses remained part of its cost structure. Management noted that the company had already absorbed higher industry-leading pay scales and significant operational investments, which could keep unit costs elevated in the near term.
What Our Model Predicts About DAL
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Delta Air Lines this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.
DAL currently has an Earnings ESP of -2.81% and a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). The negative Earnings ESP and unfavorable Zacks Rank reduce the likelihood of an earnings beat when the company reports third-quarter 2026 results.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Highlights of DAL’s Q2 Earnings
Delta reported second-quarter 2026 earnings (excluding 88 cents from non-recurring items) of $1.56 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.51. Earnings declined a double-digit percentage from a year ago as sharply higher fuel costs pressured profitability.
Revenues rose on a year-over-year basis to $17.67 billion but missed the consensus estimate of $17.76 billion. Broad demand strength lifted adjusted total revenue per available seat mile, or TRASM, 12.4%, while premium and diversified revenue streams continued to expand.
Stocks to Consider
Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these too have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
American Airlines AAL has an Earnings ESP of +4.38% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
AAL is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 22. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings have been revised downward by more than 100% over the past 60 days. AAL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and missed once in the remaining, with the average beat being 97.6%.
Canadian National Railway CNI has an Earnings ESP of +1.33% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. CNI is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 earnings on Oct. 30.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised upward by 1.35% to $1.50 per share over the past 60 days. CNI’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters (met the mark on the other occasion). The average beat is 4.01%.
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Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).