Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
Bringing together a positive earnings ESP alongside a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has helped stocks report a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time. Furthermore, by using these parameters, investors have seen 28.3% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Most stocks, about 60%, fall into the #3 (Hold) category, and they are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with a #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy) rating, or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market, with Strong Buy stocks outperforming more than any other rank.
Should You Consider Virtu Financial?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Virtu Financial (VIRT) earns a #2 (Buy) 16 days from its next quarterly earnings release on November 5, 2026, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $1.49 a share.
Virtu Financial's Earnings ESP sits at +2.62%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $1.49 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.45. VIRT is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
VIRT is just one of a large group of Finance stocks with a positive ESP figure. Allstate (ALL) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Allstate is a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on November 4, 2026. ALL's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $7.40 a share 15 days from its next earnings release.
Allstate's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at +5.25% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.03.
VIRT and ALL's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
Should You Invest in Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT)?
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Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT): Free Stock Analysis Report
The Allstate Corporation (ALL): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).