Manpower Group (MAN), a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is one of the world’s largest workforce solutions companies.
The stock fell roughly 15% after its third quarter report on October 15, and investors might want to stay cautious as analysts continue to cut estimates.
About the Company
ManpowerGroup operates through its Manpower staffing brand, Experis IT staffing and Talent Solutions, which includes recruitment outsourcing, managed services and Right Management outplacement. Its results track hiring activity closely, making it a bellwether for labor demand in the U.S. and Europe.
The company is valued at $2 billion and has a forward PE of 12. The stock has Zacks Style Scores of “B” in Value, “D” in Growth, and “A” in Momentum.
A Rally Built on Hope and Earnings Disappointment
MAN entered October up more than 45% in 2026 as investors bet on a turnaround in global staffing demand. Management fed that narrative, calling 2026 an inflection point for the business. The third quarter showed the recovery is real, but not as fast as the stock had priced in, and shares fell roughly 15% on the report.
Adjusted EPS came in at $1.01, matching the consensus estimate. Revenue rose 4% to $4.84 billion but missed the $4.91 billion estimate. Gross margin slipped to 15.9% from 16.1% in the prior quarter.
The Americas grew 11.5% in constant currency, but Southern Europe managed just 2.1%, and revenue in France fell 2%. Permanent recruitment was softer than expected, notably in France. Right Management, one of the company’s highest margin businesses, saw its revenue decline deepen as layoff activity slowed, cutting into profitability.
Weak Guidance
ManpowerGroup guided fourth quarter EPS to $1.03 to $1.13, with the $1.08 midpoint below the $1.10 consensus. Revenue is expected to grow just 3% to 7% in constant currency.
Management blamed tougher comparisons, but U.S. growth is expected to slow to the mid-single digits from 9% in the third quarter. The guidance also assumes a steep 44% tax rate and a stable December manufacturing environment, leaving little room for error if year-end shutdowns run larger than usual.
Estimates Are Falling
Analysts have moved quickly in one direction. Over the past week, there were three downward revisions to the fourth quarter estimate and three to 2027, with no increases to either.
The biggest cut came to the first quarter of 2027, where the consensus fell 16% to $0.68 from $0.81. The 2027 Zacks Consensus Estimate dropped to $4.86 from $5.11, a 5% decline.
Even after that cut, the Street is still looking for 35% EPS growth next year, a high bar for a company guiding to mid-single digit revenue growth.
Cash and Leadership Questions
The company posted a $17 million free cash flow outflow in the third quarter, which management attributed to payment timing. It has also shelved share buybacks for now to focus on strengthening the balance sheet.
On top of that, ManpowerGroup is changing leaders mid-turnaround. Becky Frankowitz takes over as CEO on January 1, 2027, with Jonas Prising moving to Executive Chair. She plans to push the transformation “faster and deeper,” but new leadership adds execution risk at a delicate point.
The Technical Take
The stock fell to the 200-day MA and found buyers, but this move lower erased the summer optimism. The stock will likely play around that moving average for the foreseeable future and consolidate until the next catalyst.
However, if that $39 level were to break, we could fall to levels seen earlier in the year, around $30 a share.
In Summary
ManpowerGroup’s recovery is moving, but a revenue miss, a below-consensus guide and falling estimates show it is not moving fast enough to justify this year’s run. With profitable segments shrinking, buybacks on hold and a CEO change coming, investors may want to wait for clearer proof before stepping in.
For investors looking for a name in the space, look to Insperity (NSP). The stock has held up well all year and has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).