Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. RCL is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 27, before the opening bell.
RCL’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, and missed on one occasion with an average surprise of 4.9%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of RCL
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $6.38, indicating a rise of 11% from $5.75 reported in the year-ago quarter.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Price and EPS Surprise
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. price-eps-surprise | Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. Quote
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $5.59 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 8.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let’s take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors Likely to Shape Royal Caribbean’s Q3 Results
Top Line: Royal Caribbean’s third-quarter revenues are likely to have benefited from robust demand for cruise vacations, increased capacity and sustained consumer spending on premium travel experiences. Strong booking volumes, record pricing and continued momentum in onboard spending and pre-cruise purchases are expected to have supported revenues. The company's differentiated fleet, private destinations and expanding loyalty programs likely contributed to guest engagement and spending.
Our model estimates third-quarter passenger ticket revenues to rise 5.8% year over year to $3.8 billion. We expect onboard and other revenues to rise 14.9% year over year to $1.7 billion.
However, prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to have weighed on booking momentum and yield growth for select European itineraries, particularly Mediterranean sailings. Higher international air travel costs and consumers' preference for closer-to-home destinations may have further influenced booking patterns. Deployment mix, new-ship timing and dry-dock comparisons are expected to have created an approximately 200-basis-point headwind to third-quarter yields. Our model predicts third-quarter net yields at $301.7 (on a reported basis) and $300.5 (constant-currency basis).
Margins: Royal Caribbean's third-quarter profitability is likely to have benefited from disciplined cost management, operational efficiencies and continued efforts to optimize spending. The company's focus on leveraging technology and artificial intelligence to improve productivity, alongside its expanding scale, is expected to have supported earnings growth.
However, elevated fuel prices and the timing of operating expenses may have posed challenges. Certain costs that shifted from the first half into the second half of 2026 could have affected quarterly expenses. Our model projects third-quarter 2026 total cruise operating expenses to rise 10.4% year over year to $2.7 billion.
Nonetheless, fuel hedging arrangements likely provided some protection against market volatility. Royal Caribbean expects third-quarter net cruise costs per available passenger cruise day, excluding fuel, to decline 1.1%-1.6% in constant currency. The company expects third-quarter adjusted EPS to be between $6.26 and $6.36.
What Our Model Says About RCL Stock
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Royal Caribbean this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat.
Royal Caribbean’s Earnings ESP: Royal Caribbean has an Earnings ESP of +0.13%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
RCL’s Zacks Rank: The company currently has a Zacks Rank #3.
Other Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some other stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation VAC has an Earnings ESP of +10.02% and a Zacks Rank of 1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Marriott Vacations is expected to register a 45% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. VAC reported better-than-expected earnings in the trailing three out of four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 1.3%.
Marriott International, Inc. MAR currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.43% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
MAR’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 15.4%. Marriott reported better-than-expected earnings in the trailing three out of four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 2.5%.
Rush Street Interactive, Inc. RSI currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.44% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
RSI’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to increase 55.6%. Rush Street Interactive reported better-than-expected earnings in the trailing two out of four quarters, missed estimates once and reported in line once, with the average surprise being 6.3%.
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Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL): Free Stock Analysis Report
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR): Free Stock Analysis Report
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Rush Street Interactive, Inc. (RSI): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).