Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ is set to release third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 5. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at $1.05 per share on revenues of $8.3 billion.
Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced CNQ’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.
Highlights of CNQ’s Q2 Earnings & Surprise History
In the last reported quarter, the Calgary-based oil and gas equipment and services company’s earnings beat the consensus mark and increased from 51 cents per share in the year-ago quarter, backed by strong operational performance and higher realized oil and NGL prices. CNQ reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.58, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.43. Total revenues of $10.6 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $9.2 billion. The company’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 12.9%. This is depicted in the chart below:
Canadian Natural Resources Limited Price and EPS Surprise
Canadian Natural Resources Limited price-eps-surprise | Canadian Natural Resources Limited Quote
Trend in CNQ’s Estimate Revision
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings has been revised 7.9% downward in the past 30 days. However, the estimated figure indicates a 69.4% year-over-year increase. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues implies a 20% increase from the year-ago period.
Factors to Consider Ahead of CNQ’s Q3 Results
Canadian Natural’s upwardly revised 2026 production guidance, strong output from Jackfish and higher volumes from acquired assets are likely to support earnings in the quarter to be reported. Continued operating efficiencies, potential cost savings of 10% or more at Peace River and resilient synthetic crude pricing may further strengthen profitability.
On the bearish side, Canadian Natural faces several challenges that could weigh on its earnings in the to-be-reported quarter. Management expects synthetic crude oil pricing to moderate from the second quarter's premium of $8.37 per barrel over WTI to near parity or a modest premium, potentially reducing realized prices and profitability. The company also indicated that planned maintenance would extend through the third quarter into the early fourth quarter, potentially constraining production and increasing expenses. Volatile commodity prices could further pressure cash flow despite operational improvements. Additionally, CNQ's substantial capital expenditure program of approximately C$6 billion for 2026 may strain free cash flow if commodity prices weaken, raising the possibility of an earnings miss.
What Does Our Model Predict for CNQ?
Our proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CNQ this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, this is not the case here.
Earnings ESP of CNQ: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
CNQ’s Zacks Rank: CNQ currently sports a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider, as they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this reporting cycle.
Calumet, Inc. CLMT currently has an Earnings ESP of +48.76% and a Zacks Rank of 2.
CLMT is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 6. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Calumet’s 2026 revenues indicates 19.3% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $4.4 billion, the company’s shares have surged 132.7% in a year.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. PAA has an Earnings ESP of +11.94% and a Zacks Rank of 2 at present. PAA is slated to release earnings on Nov. 6.
Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for PAA’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 12.3% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $18.7 billion, the company’s shares have gained 57.4% in a year.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.14% and a Zacks Rank of 2. It is scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 9.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Occidental Petroleum’s 2026 earnings per share indicates 208.1% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $64 billion, OXY’s shares have rallied 48.8% in a year.
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.
Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners, but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like D-Wave Quantum, which shot up +680.1%.
Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ): Free Stock Analysis Report
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA): Free Stock Analysis Report
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY): Free Stock Analysis Report
Calumet, Inc. (CLMT): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).