Shell plc — Form 6-K summary
Reporting period: Filed October 7, 2026, this update provides management’s outlook for the third quarter of 2026; it is not a report of final Q3 results. Results were scheduled for publication on October 29, 2026. Unless stated otherwise, outlook excludes identified items.
Financial and operating outlook
| Area | Q3 2026 outlook | Comparison and commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Integrated Gas | Production 740–780 kboe/d; LNG liquefaction 7.2–7.6 MT; underlying opex $1.3–$1.5bn; pre-tax depreciation $1.1–$1.5bn; tax charge $0.6–$0.9bn. | Q2 production was 631 kboe/d and LNG volumes 7.7 MT. Trading and Optimisation expected in line with Q2. Outlook includes ARC Resources, acquired September 2, 2026. |
| Upstream | Production 1,735–1,835 kboe/d; underlying opex $2.1–$2.5bn; pre-tax depreciation $2.2–$2.8bn; tax charge $2.5–$3.3bn. Exploration well write-offs expected to be about $0.3bn. | Q2 production was 1,824 kboe/d. |
| Marketing | Sales 2,550–2,650 kb/d; underlying opex $2.3–$2.7bn; pre-tax depreciation $0.5–$0.7bn; tax charge $0.2–$0.5bn. | Q2 sales were 2,570 kb/d. Adjusted earnings expected to be lower than Q2. |
| Chemicals and Products | Refining margin $42/bbl; chemicals margin $208/tonne; refinery utilisation 93%–97%; chemicals utilisation 81%–85%; underlying opex $1.7–$2.1bn; pre-tax depreciation $1.1–$1.3bn; tax charge $1.0–$1.5bn. | Q2 margins were $24/bbl and $270/tonne, respectively; utilisation was 102% for refineries and 83% for chemicals. Low Rhine water levels were affecting Rheinland refinery utilisation. Trading and Optimisation expected in line with Q2. |
| Renewables and Energy Solutions | Adjusted earnings $0.0–$0.4bn. | Q2 adjusted earnings were $0.1bn. |
| Corporate | Adjusted loss $0.6–$0.8bn. | Q2 adjusted loss was $0.6bn. |
Cash flow, debt and earnings context
- Q3 cash-flow guidance includes tax paid of $3.1–$3.9bn, derivative-instrument movements of $0–$5bn, other movements of negative $4bn to positive $1bn, and working-capital movements of negative $4bn to positive $1bn. The filing does not provide a clear total CFFO forecast.
- CFFO excluding working capital is expected to include an approximately $2.5bn outflow from the timing of payments for German emissions certificates under BEHG. The filing says these payments historically occur in Q4.
- A $0.8bn joint-venture dividend inflow is offset by a $0.8bn working-capital outflow because the funds had previously been held on deposit; the net CFFO impact is zero.
- Net debt is expected to be affected by ARC acquisition cash consideration and assumed debt, as well as higher variable components of long-term shipping leases. No forecast net-debt amount is provided.
- Q2 income attributable to Shell plc shareholders was $10.8bn and Q2 adjusted earnings were $9.8bn. The filing gives no group-wide Q3 profit or adjusted-earnings forecast.
Material changes and unusual items
- Integrated Gas production outlook was revised from the prior Q3 range of 570–630 kboe/d to 740–780 kboe/d. The earlier range excluded ARC Resources and Qatar volumes; the updated outlook includes the ARC acquisition.
- Other revised operational ranges include LNG volumes of 7.2–7.6 MT versus the prior 7.1–7.7 MT, Upstream production of 1,735–1,835 kboe/d versus 1,680–1,880 kboe/d, refinery utilisation of 93%–97% versus 93%–101%, and chemicals utilisation of 81%–85% versus 78%–86%.
- Non-cash, post-tax impairments of Marketing biogas assets are expected to be largely offset by an impairment reversal in Integrated Gas; both are identified items.
- Shell cautions that outlooks are estimates subject to finalisation and that actual results may differ materially. Risks cited include commodity-price and demand changes, currencies, operational and project execution, regulation, climate and environmental risks, geopolitical conflict, cyber incidents, and trading conditions. Forward-looking non-GAAP measures cannot be reconciled to GAAP because relevant future inputs are uncertain.
Important facts for investors to verify
- Final Q3 results and actual production, margins, utilisation, earnings and cash flow when published on October 29, 2026.
- How ARC’s contribution, acquisition consideration and assumed debt affect reported production and net debt.
- The realised cash-flow impact and payment timing of BEHG emissions certificates, working capital and derivative movements.
- The scale and classification of the expected biogas impairments and Integrated Gas impairment reversal, and the exploration well write-offs.
- Whether low Rhine water levels continue to constrain Rheinland refinery operations and affect segment performance.