First-quarter results of the insurance industry players within the Finance sector are expected to reflect improved pricing, exposure growth, portfolio optimization, strong retention, renewals, reinsurance arrangements, and ongoing digital acceleration. A relatively subdued catastrophe environment is likely to have provided an additional boost to performance. Per the latest Earnings Preview, the Finance sector’s first-quarter 2026 total earnings are anticipated to rise 24.7% from the prior-year quarter’s figure, and revenues are anticipated to improve 12.4%.
With the help of the Zacks Stock Screener, we have identified four insurers, namely Axis Capital Holdings AXS, Palomar Holdings PLMR, Assurant, Inc. AIZ and Arthur J Gallagher AJG, which are poised to outperform the Zacks Consensus Estimate in first-quarter earnings. These stocks have the ideal combination of two ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), 3 (Hold) — to surpass expectations. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Factors Likely to Impact Q1 Results
Prudent pricing discipline, solid policy retention and exposure growth across multiple lines of business are likely to have supported premium growth in the first quarter of 2026. Global commercial insurance rates declined in 2025, and a similar softening trend likely persisted in the first quarter. According to Marsh, global property rates fell 9% during the period. However, auto insurance premiums are likely to have been bolstered by increased global travel activity, which supported demand.
From a catastrophe standpoint, the first quarter of 2026 was relatively benign, with no major severe events reported. Insurers that have released results pointed to lower catastrophe-related claims, which likely provided a lift to underwriting performance. Underwriting profitability is expected to have benefited from disciplined pricing, effective reinsurance programs, portfolio optimization efforts, enhanced coverage structures, and favorable reserve development. Reinsurance broker Gallagher Re estimates total insured catastrophe losses for the quarter at around $20 billion.
On the investment side, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged during the first quarter of 2026. Insurers’ net investment income is likely to have benefited from a larger asset base, strong operating cash flows, still-elevated bond yields, and higher interest income from fixed-maturity investments.
Within the life insurance segment, a continued focus on protection-oriented products likely supported steady sales growth, reflecting increasing demand for such solutions. Insurers have also been expanding offerings that combine guaranteed retirement income with life and health benefits, catering to customers seeking “living” benefits in addition to traditional coverage.
The industry’s increasing adoption of advanced technologies—including artificial intelligence, blockchain, advanced analytics, telematics, cloud computing, and robotic process automation—continues to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs. These investments are expected to support margin expansion. Additionally, strong capital positions have likely enabled insurers to pursue strategic mergers and acquisitions, while consistent capital returns through dividends and share repurchases strengthen investor confidence.
4 Potential Outperformers This Earnings Season
Axis Holdings, a global specialty underwriter, has a strategic focus on specialty products, including professional liability, cyber insurance, marine, aviation, political risk and terrorism coverage. The Insurance segment is likely to have benefited from strong performance across the majority of its business lines. Reinsurance segment performance is likely to have been supported by new business growth in motor, as well as credit and surety lines, along with premium increases in the latter. Underwriting results are expected to improve due to a relatively mild catastrophe environment. Additionally, the strategic portfolio repositioning undertaken over the past three years has likely contributed positively to overall performance.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AXS’ first-quarter earnings is pegged at $3.23, suggesting an increase of 1.9% from the year-ago reported figure. AXS has an Earnings ESP of +1.34% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Axis Capital Holdings Limited Price and EPS Surprise
Axis Capital Holdings Limited price-eps-surprise | Axis Capital Holdings Limited Quote
Palomar is a rapidly growing and profitable company focused on the provision of catastrophe insurance for personal and commercial property. This insurance holding company’s focus on new business, its strong premium retention rates for existing business and renewal of existing policies are likely to aid first-quarter results.
Net investment income is likely to have gained from higher yields on invested assets and a larger average investment balance supported by strong operating cash flow.
Expenses are likely to have increased owing to increases in incurred losses and loss adjustment expenses, interest expense, acquisition expenses and other underwriting expenses.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PLMR’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $2.17, indicating an increase of 16% from the year-ago reported figure. PLMR has an Earnings ESP of +0.92% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present.
Palomar Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Palomar Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Palomar Holdings, Inc. Quote
Assurant is a global provider of risk management solutions in the housing and lifestyle markets, protecting people’s homes and the goods they buy. Strong performance in the Global Housing segment, coupled with continued growth in Global Lifestyle, is likely to support Assurant’s first-quarter results. Revenues are likely to have been driven by higher net earned premiums and increased net investment income.
Net earned premiums are likely to have risen due to higher premiums across both the Global Housing and Global Lifestyle segments. Meanwhile, net investment income is expected to have benefited from higher yields and greater investments in fixed maturity securities, partly offset by lower income from real estate joint ventures and reduced yields and balances in cash and cash equivalents.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AIZ’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $5.40, suggesting an increase of 59.3% from the year-ago reported figure. AIZ has an Earnings ESP of +3.01% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Palomar Holdings, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Palomar Holdings, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Palomar Holdings, Inc. Quote
Arthur J Gallagher is the world’s largest property/casualty third-party claims administrator and ranks as the world’s fourth largest globally among insurance brokers based on revenues. Its strong performance across both its segments is expected to support AJG’s first-quarter results. Growth in new business, solid client retention and higher renewal premiums across its operations are likely to have contributed positively during the quarter.
The Risk Management segment is expected to have benefited from high client retention, robust new business generation, and increased customer activity. Meanwhile, the Brokerage segment is likely to have gained from continued strong retention, increased new business, rising renewal premiums, and improved interest income from both proprietary and fiduciary funds.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AJG’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $4.40, indicating an increase of 19.9% from the year-ago reported figure. AJG has an Earnings ESP of +0.04% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Price and EPS Surprise
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. price-eps-surprise | Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Quote
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).