Riot Platforms (RIOT) is a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) miner turned artificial intelligence (AI) high-performance computing company. Riot has been essentially using its experience with GPUs and data centers as a Bitcoin miner to slingshot itself into an AI neocloud, and it seems to be working.
Riot signed a deal with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in January 2026 for a 25 megawatt lease at Rockdale, with $311 million in contracted revenue over 10 years. AMD doubled this in April — and those numbers are peanuts compared to what happened on Aug. 10.
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Earlier this month, Riot signed a 20-year lease for 191 MW at Rockdale for a “leading frontier AI lab” believed to be Anthropic. Expected rent is about $9.1 billion, or $16.1 billion if the tenant renews twice. Capacity is due in two parts — 96 MW in December 2027 and the rest by June 2028. Morgan Stanley will lend Riot up to $573 million to “fund initial development costs.”
Riot Platforms' current market capitalization is close to $7.5 billion, so this deal is larger than the whole company. Let's take a closer look.
www.barchart.com Why Anthropic Signed the Deal and What Riot Gets
Anthropic has been actively shopping for compute, which isn't much of a secret. This year, it became clear that AI companies were desperate for compute when both Alphabet (GOOGL) and Anthropic signed a contract with SpaceX's (SPCX) AI division. Anthropic has agreed to pay SpaceX $1.25 billion monthly through May 2029.
The Riot deal is smaller by comparison, but it's still massive enough to re-rate the business higher over the coming quarters if Riot can execute. Anthropic remains massively compute-constrained, as the company has the go-to AI models for developers.
Demand is rising faster than even the most bullish analysts have predicted as more and more people use AI. Thus, it is highly likely that Anthropic won't cancel its deal with Riot, while the SpaceX deal is also likely to survive its term.
RIOT Stock Didn't Surge Much
The catch with the Riot-Anthropic deal is not that the agreement is smaller-than-expected or bad. It's that the deal will take time to start and spans two decades. That $9.1 billion figure is being stretched out over 20 years, although it still represents $455 million a year, compared to Riot's record full-year 2025 total revenue of $647.4 million.
However, Riot Platforms will not start receiving that revenue anytime soon. The first 96 MW is not expected until December 2027, while the full capacity will come online in June 2028.
Worse for Riot, the company will need to spend a lot to get there. It doesn't even have the money on hand. Riot's net loss of $663 million exceeded revenue last year, and the company ended the year with $867 million in debt against $234 million in cash.
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Too Bullish
Anthropic is likely getting more out of this deal, even though it is the one that is desperate for compute. This is because Riot is giving away 20 years' worth of capacity for a fixed all-inclusive payment, even though no one knows how expensive electricity and data-center upkeep could be in the coming years. Not only that, Riot could have gotten a much better deal just by waiting, considering AI firms are competing fiercely for compute.
Plus, when you consider the amount of money Riot will have to arrange and sink into building out the infrastructure for Anthropic, the margins may not even be that high.
Still, this deal could open the door to further, juicier deals down the line with Anthropic's peers.
How to Play RIOT Stock Now
All told, I would expect pain in the near term, then an eventual gain in the long term. Does that mean RIOT stock is worth buying right now? I believe not.
Yes, the broader market rally could take this stock much higher, but there are better AI stocks with which to ride the rally. RIOT stock is highly dilutive and will likely dilute more as well as take on more debt to prepare for all of these AI deals. If you buy now, you're the one providing the funds for the buildout.
If you are bullish on these crypto-to-neocloud stories, I'd suggest waiting until the summer of 2027. Anthropic's revenue will start kicking in a few months after that, and there's a good chance even crypto might rally again.
If you believe the average analyst, they expect 50%-plus upside by the summer of 2027. But I doubt the stock can hold at that level for long given all the dilution.
www.barchart.com On the date of publication, Omor Ibne Ehsan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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