President Donald Trump may have failed at making Greenland the 51st state, but he appears to have achieved the next best thing. The Trump administration has spent its second term trying to reduce the United States' dependence on China for rare earth elements — the specialized metals used in everything from electronics and electric motors to weapons systems — and over the weekend it announced a historic security agreement between the United States, Greenland, and Denmark.
Greenland is rich in rare earths, but the idea of buying an autonomous territory of Denmark struck many observers as a strange way to secure a mineral supply chain. However, the security agreement has thrust one tiny mining stock back into the spotlight: Critical Metals (CRML). CRML stock is soaring more than 35% today on news of the agreement.
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www.barchart.com From Buying Greenland to Securing Access
Trump's push to acquire Greenland actually began during his first term as president, but it was quickly rejected by Denmark. Yet, soon after being sworn in for his second term in January 2025, Trump renewed his efforts to acquire or annex Greenland, with the move rankling Denmark, the European Union (EU), and fellow NATO allies who strongly opposed any transfer of sovereignty
Ultimately, the deal hammered out is much more conventional. It preserves Greenland as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark while expanding U.S. military access and cooperation. It also aims to prevent non-NATO adversaries from ever establishing military bases or making sensitive strategic investments on the island without U.S. approval. The exact implementation details remain subject to formalization, but Danish and Greenlandic officials have stressed that Greenland's sovereignty and right to self-determination remain intact.
That is important to investors because Greenland's mineral wealth was always only part of the story. Arctic infrastructure, permitting, transportation, political stability, and access to Western markets all determine whether a deposit becomes an operating mine.
Tanbreez Makes CRML Stock a Strategic Speculation
CRML stock is jumping more than 35% today to around $9 following the agreement, after closing at $6.73 close on Sept. 18. The move is notable because Critical Metals has already previously demonstrated how quickly Greenland headlines can move its stock.
On Jan. 7, the company received approval to begin construction of a pilot plant and related facilities at Tanbreez. By Jan. 26, CRML stock traded as high as $21.86 intraday, more than doubling from its year-end close. The excitement didn't last, however; Critical Metals stock has fallen hard in 2026 with Friday's close marking a roughly 79% decline from the all-time high of $32.15 hit last October.
Tanbreez, though, is why investors keep coming back. Critical Metals now owns 92.5% of the Greenland project, which hosts a large heavy-rare-earth deposit. The company has also signed a 15-year offtake agreement for concentrate and approved a $30 million acceleration program. Most importantly, Critical Metals now targets first ore production in the fourth quarter of 2028 or first quarter of 2029.
That is where investors see the opportunity — but it's also the problem.
The Numbers Say Patience Is Needed
Critical Metals isn't producing rare earths today and still has no operating revenue. Financial statements showed a $120.4 million loss for the six months ended Dec. 31, 2025, with $19.2 million of operating cash outflow. The financial report makes clear that investors are buying the future Tanbreez operation, not an existing mining business generating cash today. The company has said continued development depends on raising additional capital and other funding sources.
In other words, investors are buying the future, not current earnings. While the Greenland agreement potentially lowers geopolitical uncertainty around Tanbreez and makes the project's strategic importance easier to see, it does not turn a development-stage miner into a producer overnight. Nearly two-and-a-half years remain before Critical Metals' current first-production target — assuming construction, financing, permitting, processing, and logistics stay on schedule.
Key Takeaway
In short, Critical Metals stock belongs on your watchlist, not at the top of your buy list, especially after its 35%-plus move today. Tanbreez could become an important Western source of heavy rare earths, and today's agreement gives the project a more favorable geopolitical backdrop. But CRML stock still represents a development-stage mining bet with no operating revenue, substantial losses, future financing needs, and production years away.
That said, investors don't have to chase every Greenland headline. If today's excitement fades — as it did after previous CRML stock rallies — a better entry point could emerge. The Tanbreez story is worth watching, but the stock doesn't have to be bought today.
On the date of publication, Rich Duprey did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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