I asked how high world sugar futures could rise in a September 3, 2026, Barchart article, where I concluded with the following:
High energy prices, weather issues in producing areas, trade tariffs and sanctions, and an emerging bullish trend could push world sugar #11 futures and the CANE ETF substantially higher over the coming weeks and months and into 2027.
Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis.
Nearby ICE sugar #11 futures traded at 18.36 cents per pound on September 1, after reaching a high of 18.66 cents on August 28. The CANE ETF was at $11.58 per share on September 1. Over the past weeks, sugar futures and CANE have soared to a new 2026 high at over 21 cents per pound, with the next technical targets at the 2024 and 2023 highs. Sugar futures corrected lower to around 18.50 cents per pound on November 4, 2026.
Sugar futures rally to the highest price since late 2024
Nearby ICE world sugar futures #11 fell 52.6% from a twelve-year high of 28.14 cents in November 2023 to a low of 13.34 cents per pound in February 2026, where it bottomed.
The chart shows sugar turned higher since the early 2026 low, rallying 59.6% to its latest high of 21.29 cents per pound in October 2026.
Rising energy prices and weather conditions support higher prices in Brazil
Weaker sugar beet and cane production in Europe, Brazil, and India have reduced global sugar supplies. In India, sugar production has fallen below forecast levels because of crop diseases, adverse weather conditions, and lower sugar recovery.
In Europe, adverse weather has reduced sugar beet yields. In Brazil, rising crude oil and oil product prices have put upward pressure on sugarcane prices as Brazil processes sugar into biofuel.
Russia is the leading sugar beet-producing country, while Brazil and India are the leading sugarcane-producing countries. Brazil and India are also the leading sugar exporters.
Super El Niño could send sugar futures much higher over the coming months
The prospects for a powerful and “Super” El Niño only exacerbate the potential for weather conditions that suppress sugar beet and cane production in 2027.
While current tight supplies have caused a small backwardation in the world sugar #11 futures contract, prices remain over 16 cents per pound throughout the forward curve out to July 2029.
The ICE sugar futures curve shows prices above 17.50 cents per pound through 2027 and into early 2028, over 16.90 cents per pound until May 2028, and above 16 cents per pound out to the final contract on the board in October 2029.
“Super” El Niño weather issues may only exacerbate the current shortages, pushing prices higher toward a test of the November 2023 high of 28.14 cents and even the February 2011 high of 36.08 cents per pound. Sugar futures' all-time high was 66 cents per pound in late 1974.
We have seen significant rallies in other soft commodities over the past few years, lifting prices to record levels. Arabica coffee futures reached a record $4.3795 per pound in late 2025 and frozen concentrated orange juice futures rose to a record $5.4315 per pound in late 2024. Like sugarcane, Brazil is the leading producer and exporter of Arabica coffee beans and oranges. Meanwhile, cocoa futures rose to a record high of $12,931 per ton in late 2024. Price action in the soft commodities sector suggests sugar futures #11 could have substantial upside if the “Super” El Niño wreaks havoc on crops in 2027.
CANE is the only ETF in the soft commodity sector
The most direct route to free-market sugarcane price exposure is ICE futures and futures options. Each sugar #11 futures contract contains 112,000 pounds or 50 long tons of sugar. At 18.50 cents per pound, the contract value is $20,720. The ICE original margin requirement is $1,342 per contract, meaning a market participant can control $23,038.40 worth of sugar futures on the long or short side for a 6.5% down payment. If equity falls below $1,220 per contract, the exchange requires maintenance margin payments. The margin levels are not fixed. When sugar price volatility changes, the margin levels can rise or fall. World sugar #11 is the most liquid futures market in the soft commodities sector, with the highest daily trading volume and open interest level.
World sugar #11 is the only soft commodity with an ETF that tracks its price. At $11.07 per share, the Teucrium Sugar ETF (CANE) had $53.309 million in assets under management. CANE trades an average of over 475,000 contracts per day and charges a 0.54% management fee.
CANE invests in three actively traded ICE world sugar #11 futures contracts, excluding the nearby contract to minimize roll risks. Therefore, since the nearby contract tends to attract the most speculative activity, CANE tends to underperform the nearby ICE contract during rallies and outperform it during downside corrections.
The CANE ETF has rallied to the highest price since April 2025
The continuous ICE world sugar futures #11 rallied 59.6% from 13.34 in February 2026 to a recent high of 21.29 in October 2026.
Over the same period, CANE rose 39.4% from $8.97 to $12.50 per share. During the most recent correction, the sugar futures declined 14% from 21.29 on October 14 to 18.31 cents per pound on November 3. CANE fell 11.5% to $11.06 per share from $12.50. CANE underperformed the ICE sugar futures on the upside, but outperformed on the downside.
Poor weather conditions in 2026 and rising energy prices have been bullish for sugar futures prices. A potential “Super” El Niño in 2027 could have explosive results for this volatile soft commodity. If Arabica coffee, orange juice, and cocoa are examples, sugar prices could be on an extremely bullish path over the coming months.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht did not directly have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
More news from Barchart
Are World Sugar Futures Heading for a Test of the 2023 High? 3 Reasons to Sell Sugar Now as Prices Keep Falling Buy Sugar Here Before Prices Rise Again on Global Deficits, Ethanol Production Sell Sugar Now Before Prices Fall Even Lower