Exxon MobilCorporation XOM has surged 19.5% over the past year, almost in line with the 19.4% improvement of the composite stocks in the industry. BP plc BP and Chevron CVX, two other integrated players in the same space, have gained 19.6% and 9.7%, respectively, over the same time frame.
Since XOM is a large integrated energy giant, investors interested in the stock might have been assessing how the ongoing oil pricing environment is impacting its business fundamentals. Let’s delve deeper into ExxonMobil’s business outlook before concluding on whether to invest in the stock.
Can XOM's Upstream Business Thrive With Oil Below $70?
ExxonMobil has a massive footprint in the Permian, the most prolific oil and gas play in the United States, and offshore Guyana. In the Permian, the integrated giant has been employing lightweight proppant technology and hence is capable of boosting its well recoveries by up to as much as 20%.
According to the data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the shut-in price for existing wells in the Midland, a sub-basin of the Permian, is $42 per barrel. For Delaware, another sub-basin, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimated the price at $34 per barrel.
With West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) crude oil trading below the $70-per-barrel mark, significantly above the shut-in prices, it makes sense for XOM to continue production in the wells. On the first-quarter earnings call, XOM mentioned that it is on track with its plan of growing its production in the most prolific basin to 1.8 million oil-equivalent barrels this year.
ExxonMobil’s Robust Balance & Dividend Commitment
Investors should also keep in mind that XOM has a strong balance sheet, on which it could rely during an unfavorable business environment. The debt-to-capitalization of ExxonMobil is 15.4%, which is significantly lower than 29.6% of the industry’s composite stocks.
Coming to the integrated energy giant’s dividend commitment story, over the past 43 years, ExxonMobil has been rewarding shareholders with annual dividend hikes at an average rate of 5.8%.
Should Investors Bet on the Stock Now?
Before concluding, we should also consider that WTI crude oil is now significantly down from the more than $100-per-barrel mark reached in May this year. With upstream operations responsible for XOM’s significant earnings generation, softer commodity prices are likely to have hurt the company’s bottom line, as they are affecting both BP and CVX.
Also, XOM is currently trading at a premium. The stock is trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.06x, which is higher than the broader industry average of 5.49x. BP and CVX, two other integrated majors, are valued at 2.83x and 8.82x, respectively.
Thus, investors shouldn’t rush to bet on the overvalued ExxonMobil stock right away. Those who have already invested may hold the stock. Currently, XOM carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Free Stock Analysis Report
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).