Novo Nordisk NVO is a dominant player in the cardiometabolic space, mainly due to the encouraging uptake of its blockbuster semaglutide-based (GLP-1) drugs — Ozempic (for type II diabetes [T2D]) and Wegovy (for obesity).
Since launch, Novo Nordisk has steadily expanded the commercial opportunity for both Ozempic and Wegovy through multiple label expansions. Together, the drugs generated DKK 63.2 billion in the first quarter of 2026, representing about 65% of NVO’s total sales. Investors will be most interested in the sales numbers for these two drugs when Novo Nordisk reports second-quarter 2026 results on Aug. 5.
Novo Nordisk has also broadened its oral semaglutide franchise. Following the FDA approval of the oral Wegovy pill to treat obesity and reduce cardiovascular risk in late December, the drug was launched in the United States in early January, offering a more convenient alternative to injections. The pill has already surpassed three million prescriptions since launch, indicating strong early uptake. Earlier this month, oral Wegovy also received approval in the EU, setting the stage for additional sales growth in the coming quarters.
Beyond obesity, Novo Nordisk is strengthening its diabetes portfolio with oral semaglutide. In May, the FDA approved oral Ozempic for adults with T2D and to reduce cardiovascular risk. The drug was subsequently launched in the United States, likely contributing to second-quarter sales, which the investors will be keen to learn. The company also continues to generate meaningful revenues from Rybelsus, its oral semaglutide therapy for T2D.
However, Novo Nordisk's weak 2026 outlook, expecting a decline in adjusted sales and operating profit, signals limited near-term momentum for its GLP-1 franchise, suggesting that second-quarter sales growth for Wegovy and Ozempic is likely to remain under pressure amid intensifying competition from arch-rival Eli Lilly LLY. Pricing pressure in the United States, weaker prescription trends for injectable GLP-1 drugs, reduced Medicaid obesity coverage and intensifying competition continue to create significant operational and executional hurdles.
Beyond its GLP-1 franchise, Novo Nordisk's insulin and Rare Disease portfolios are likely to have provided additional support to overall revenues during the period.
NVO’s Peers in the Obesity Space
Eli Lilly is Novo Nordisk’s fierce competitor in the diabetes/obesity space, which markets its tirzepatide injections, Mounjaro (T2D) and Zepbound (obesity), competing directly with NVO’s Ozempic and Wegovy injections, respectively. Mounjaro and Zepbound have become LLY’s key top-line drivers. In the first quarter of 2026, the two drugs generated a combined $12.82 billion in sales, accounting for approximately 65% of Eli Lilly’s total revenues.
Eli Lilly also secured FDA approval and subsequently launched its oral GLP-1 pill, Foundayo (orforglipron), for obesity in early April, which now competes directly with Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill. Investors will be most keen on learning the initial commercial performance of Foundayo when Eli Lilly reports its second-quarter results on Aug. 5 as well.
The obesity space has garnered much of the spotlight over the past year due to the sizeable and still underpenetrated market opportunity. Smaller biotech firms, like Viking Therapeutics VKTX and Structure Therapeutics GPCR, are also advancing GLP-1–based therapies to challenge the incumbents. Viking Therapeutics’ dual GIPR/GLP-1 receptor agonist, VK2735, is being developed as both oral and subcutaneous formulations for the treatment of obesity. Viking Therapeutics plans to advance oral VK2735 into phase III development for obesity in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Structure Therapeutics’ phase II ACCESS study on its orally administered GLP-1 RA, aleniglipron, demonstrated significant weight loss across all doses. Structure Therapeutics expects to initiate the late-stage program of aleniglipron in obesity in the second half of 2026.
NVO’s Stock Price, Valuation & Estimates
Year to date, Novo Nordisk shares have gained 0.2% compared with the industry’s 13.1% growth. The company has also underperformed the sector and the S&P 500 during the same time frame, as seen in the chart below.
NVO Stock Underperforms the Industry, Sector & the S&P 500
Novo Nordisk is trading at a discount to the industry, as seen in the chart below. Going by the price/earnings ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 15.34 forward earnings, which is lower than 19.11 for the industry. The stock is trading much below its five-year mean of 29.25.
NVO Stock’s Valuation
Earnings estimates for 2026 have decreased from $3.46 to $3.39 per share over the past 60 days. During the same time frame, Novo Nordisk’s 2027 earnings estimates have deteriorated from $3.44 to $3.27 per share.
NVO’s Estimate Movement
Novo Nordisk currently carries a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
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