PNC Financial 2026 NII Outlook Brightens: What's Driving the Momentum?

Zacks
Open on Zacks
PNC Financial 2026 NII Outlook Brightens: What's Driving the Momentum?

The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.’s PNC net interest income (NII) outlook for 2026 has strengthened, supported by robust loan growth, an improving deposit mix and continued repricing of fixed-rate assets. Following the solid second-quarter results, management raised its full-year NII growth guidance to 15-15.5% from the earlier mentioned 14.5%, based on the 2025 NII baseline of $14.41 billion.

PNC’s second-quarter performance highlights the momentum behind the improved outlook. NII reached $4.11 billion, increasing 16% year over year. The net interest margin (NIM) also moved up to 2.96% from 2.95% in the preceding quarter and 2.80% a year earlier.

A key driver is strong loan growth, particularly in commercial and industrial lending. Average loans rose 4% sequentially and 13% year over year to $363.2 billion in the second quarter. Management consequently raised its 2026 average loan growth forecast to 12.5% from 11%.

Deposit trends are another tailwind. While total average deposits were essentially stable sequentially, non-interest-bearing deposits increased 4%, while the rate paid on interest-bearing deposits declined five basis points. This favorable shift in funding mix is helping offset pressure from lower loan yields and supporting spread income. PNC should also benefit from fixed-rate asset repricing. During the second quarter, the company sold roughly $4 billion of securities and reinvested the proceeds into securities yielding about 120 basis points more, enhancing the prospective earnings contribution from the investment portfolio.

The FirstBank acquisition has expanded PNC’s loan and deposit base. The transaction added roughly $16 billion in loans and $23 billion in deposits at closing, providing additional scale and opportunities to deepen customer relationships.

Near-term momentum remains encouraging, with management expecting third-quarter NII to increase 3-3.5% sequentially. Overall, robust commercial lending, a healthier funding mix and asset repricing appear well-positioned to keep PNC’s NII trajectory positive through the remainder of 2026, though elevated expenses and funding needs remain factors to watch.

PNC’s Peers 2026 Expectations

Wells Fargo WFC and Citigroup C also expect their NII to grow in 2026.

Wells Fargo expects NII to be $50 billion. NII excluding Markets is projected to be $48 billion, driven by balance-sheet growth, a favorable loan and deposit mix and continued fixed-asset repricing, partially offset by the impacts of expected rate cuts. 

Citigroup expects NII (excluding Markets) to increase 5-6% on a year-over-year basis in 2026, supported by stabilizing deposit costs and disciplined balance-sheet management. The outlook reflects the bank’s efforts to benefit from a more favorable rate and funding environment while continuing to reshape its business toward higher-quality growth.

PNC Financial Price Performance & Zacks Rank

Shares of PNC have surged 31.4% over the past year compared with the industry’s growth of 26.3%.

Price Performance

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Currently, PNC Financial carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Beyond Nvidia: AI's Second Wave Is Here

The AI revolution has already minted millionaires. But the stocks everyone knows about aren't likely to keep delivering the biggest profits. AI’s second wave is moving from infrastructure to implementation and these companies are at the forefront of this transition, positioned to become what Amazon and Google were to the internet era.

See Stocks Now >>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report


 
The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc (PNC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Citigroup Inc. (C): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research