Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Up 14.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Zacks
Open on Zacks
Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) Up 14.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Cheesecake Factory (CAKE). Shares have added about 14.1% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Cheesecake Factory due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Cheesecake Factory Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Both Up Y/Y

Cheesecake Factory reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results, with adjusted earnings topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate and increasing year over year. Total revenues also surpassed the consensus mark and improved from the year-ago quarter.

Results benefited from strong comparable restaurant sales at The Cheesecake Factory concept, along with improved labor productivity and food efficiency. Management also highlighted continued momentum from menu innovation, its rewards program and marketing efforts.

CAKE’s Q2 Earnings & Revenue Discussion

For the quarter under review, CAKE reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.44, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.17 by 23.1%. In the year-ago period, the company reported adjusted earnings of $1.16 per share.

Quarterly revenues were $1,029.6 million, up 7.7% from $955.8 million a year ago and topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $999 million by 3.1%. Adjusted net income increased to $69.7 million from $55.7 million in the prior-year quarter.

Comparable Sales Accelerate at Cheesecake Factory

Comparable restaurant sales at The Cheesecake Factory restaurants increased 5.8% year over year in the second quarter. This compared favorably with growth of 1.2% in the year-ago quarter. Management stated that comparable sales and traffic meaningfully outperformed the broader casual dining industry.

From a segment standpoint, the namesake Cheesecake Factory restaurants generated $729.5 million of revenues versus $683.3 million in the year-ago quarter. North Italia revenues rose to $98.4 million from $90.8 million, while Other FRC revenues increased to $104 million from $90.2 million. Other segment revenues advanced to $97.7 million from $91.6 million.

CAKE Profitability Improves on Cost Discipline

Operating performance strengthened year over year. Income from operations increased to $78.6 million from $64.8 million in the prior-year quarter. As a percentage of revenues, operating margin expanded 80 basis points to 7.6%, supported by higher sales and improved restaurant-level execution.

Labor expenses declined 80 basis points to 34.1% of revenues, while other operating costs and expenses improved 30 basis points to 26.5%. Food and beverage costs increased 20 basis points to 21.8%, while general and administrative expenses rose 30 basis points to 6.4%. Preopening costs decreased to $7 million from $9 million.

Cheesecake Factory Expands Development and Returns Capital

CAKE continued to add restaurants across its growth concepts. During the quarter, the company opened four new restaurants, including two North Italia locations, one Flower Child and one FRC restaurant. Subsequent to quarter-end, it opened one additional The Cheesecake Factory location.

Management reiterated expectations to open as many as 26 new restaurants in fiscal 2026. The plan includes five to six The Cheesecake Factory restaurants, six to seven North Italia locations, seven Flower Child restaurants and as many as seven FRC restaurants. Shareholder returns remained active, with the company repurchasing approximately 158,600 shares for $9.3 million and declaring a quarterly dividend of 30 cents per share, payable Aug. 25, 2026, to shareholders of record as of Aug. 11.

CAKE Liquidity Remains Solid With Manageable Debt

CAKE ended the quarter with $561.7 million of total available liquidity, comprising $195.2 million in cash and $366.5 million of revolver availability with no outstanding balance. Cash and cash equivalents were $195.2 million as of June 30, 2026, compared with $215.7 million at the end of fiscal 2025.

During the quarter, the company repaid the remaining $69 million principal amount of its 0.375% convertible senior notes due 2026. Total debt principal stood at $575 million, representing the 2% convertible senior notes due 2030. Long-term debt, net of issuance costs, was $630.1 million compared with $562.9 million as of Dec. 30, 2025. With substantial revolver availability and no outstanding balance on the facility, CAKE retained financial flexibility to support restaurant development and shareholder returns.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Since the earnings release, investors have witnessed a upward trend in estimates review.

The consensus estimate has shifted 18.72% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Cheesecake Factory has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a score of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. It comes with little surprise Cheesecake Factory has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days

Just released: Experts distill 7 elite stocks from the current list of 220 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys. They deem these tickers "Most Likely for Early Price Pops."

Since 1988, the full list has beaten the market more than 2X over with an average gain of +23.9% per year. So be sure to give these hand picked 7 your immediate attention. 

See them now >>

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report


 
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research