A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Suncor Energy (SU). Shares have added about 8.9% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Suncor Energy due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Suncor Energy Q2 Earnings & Revenues Beat Estimates, Rise Y/Y
Suncor Energy reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted operating earnings of $2.33 per share, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.14 by 8.9%. Moreover, the bottom line increased significantly from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure of 51 cents. The outperformance was driven by stronger downstream margins, higher upstream price realizations and increased refined product sales volumes.
The Calgary, Alberta-based integrated oil and gas company’s operating revenues of $12.7 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.3 billion by 22.4%. The top line also increased approximately 47.3% year over year, aided by record refined product sales, higher refinery production and stronger benchmark crack spreads.
Suncor Energy’s board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of 60 Canadian cents per share for its common shareholders of record as of Sept. 4, 2026. The payout, which remains unchanged from the previous quarter, will be made on Sept. 25.
During the quarter, the company distributed a total of C$1.8 billion to its shareholders, including over C$1 billion in share repurchases and over C$700 million in dividends. It generated C$5.3 billion in adjusted funds from operations and C$4 billion in free cash flow.
During the second quarter, Suncor Energy delivered upstream production of 760,900 barrels per day (bbls/d), down from 808,100 bbls/d in the year-ago quarter. However, refining throughput reached a second-quarter record of 470,600 bbls/d, compared with 442,300 bbls/d a year earlier, while refined product sales rose to 654,800 bbls/d from 600,500 bbls/d in the prior-year period.
Segmental Performance
Upstream: The company recorded a total production of 760,900 bbls/d, down from 808,100 bbls/d in the year-ago quarter. However, the figure beat the consensus estimate of 755,000 bbls/d.
Total Oil Sands production was 690,100 bbls/d, down from 748,400 bbls/d in the year-ago quarter. Total Oil Sands bitumen production was 815,200 bbls/d, compared with 860,800 bbls/d in the prior-year period. This decrease was caused by the planned turnaround at Firebag.
Net synthetic crude oil and diesel production increased to 482,200 bbls/d from 438,200 bbls/d a year earlier, driven by fewer maintenance activities in the current quarter. Non-upgraded bitumen production decreased to 207,900 bbls/d from 310,200 bbls/d, primarily due to increased upgrader availability and decreased bitumen production.
Oil Sands adjusted operating earnings were C$2.6 billion, up from C$926 million in the prior-year quarter, backed by increased price realizations.
Exploration and Production (E&P) production rose to 70,800 bbls/d from 59,700 bbls/d in the year-ago period, driven by strong production across assets. Adjusted operating earnings in the segment increased to C$465 million from C$165 million, primarily driven by higher sales volumes and stronger price realizations.
Downstream: The segment was the key driver of the quarter’s strength. Refining and Marketing adjusted operating earnings surged to C$2.1 billion from C$404 million in the prior-year quarter, primarily fueled by higher benchmark crack spreads, a FIFO inventory valuation gain and increased refinery production and sales volumes. Refinery utilization was 92%, up from 87% in the prior-year quarter, reflecting Suncor Energy’s increased refining network nameplate capacity of 511,000 bbls/d.
Refined product sales climbed to 654,800 bbls/d, a 9% increase from 600,500 bbls/d in the prior-year quarter, supported by global market opportunities, including record jet fuel sales, while also delivering more domestic volumes through high-value retail channels. Moreover, the figure beat the consensus estimate of 596,000 bbls/d.
Financial Position
Total expenses increased 20% to C$12.6 billion from the prior-year quarter. The cost of purchases of crude oil and products increased to C$6.4 billion in the second quarter of 2026, compared with C$5.1 billion in the prior-year quarter. Operating, selling and general expenses increased 8.1% to C$3.4 billion from the prior-year quarter, and Exploration expenses increased to C$17 million compared with C$4 million in the previous-year quarter.
Suncor Energy generated C$5.3 billion in adjusted funds from operations, up from C$2.7 billion in the prior-year quarter. Free funds flow increased to almost C$4 billion from C$981 million. The company returned nearly C$1.8 billion to its shareholders, including C$1 billion in share repurchases and over C$700 million in dividends.
Capital expenditures totaled C$1.3 billion, decreasing from the year-ago quarter of C$1.6 billion. As of June 30, 2026, Suncor Energy had cash and cash equivalents of C$5.4 billion and long-term debt of C$9.2 billion. Its debt-to-capitalization was 16%.
Guidance and Shareholder Returns
Suncor Energy’s 2026 corporate guidance targets total production of 840,000-870,000 bbl/d, including 785,000-810,000 bbl/d from Oil Sands and 55,000-60,000 bbl/d from Exploration and Production. Refinery throughput is expected at 460,000-475,000 bbl/d, with utilization of 90%-93% and refined product sales of 600,000-620,000 bbl/d. Capital expenditures are guided at C$5.6-C$5.8 billion, led by C$3.8-C$3.9 billion for Oil Sands. Cash operating costs are expected at C$26-C$29/bbl for Oil Sands operations, C$33-C$36/bbl at Fort Hills and C$34-C$37/bbl at Syncrude. The guidance assumes Brent at $87/bbl and WTI at $80/bbl, while the company highlights operational reliability, maintenance execution, commodity prices and infrastructure as key factors that could affect results.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a upward trend in fresh estimates.
The consensus estimate has shifted 39.17% due to these changes.
VGM Scores
Currently, Suncor Energy has a strong Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20% for value investors.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Interestingly, Suncor Energy has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
Performance of an Industry Player
Suncor Energy is part of the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - Canadian industry. Over the past month, Cenovus Energy (CVE), a stock from the same industry, has gained 18.3%. The company reported its results for the quarter ended June 2026 more than a month ago.
Cenovus reported revenues of $12.59 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +41.4%. EPS of $1.11 for the same period compares with $0.33 a year ago.
Cenovus is expected to post earnings of $0.83 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +59.6%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged.
Cenovus has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of A.
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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).