The Home Depot, Inc. HD faces mounting margin pressures as rising input costs, fuel and energy expenses, and evolving tariff policies weigh on its profitability outlook. Although the home improvement retailer continues to demonstrate operational resilience, persistent cost inflation and acquisition-related mix pressures remain key challenges. Meanwhile, subdued demand for larger discretionary projects and ongoing housing market uncertainty could limit its ability to offset these headwinds through stronger sales volumes.
In second-quarter fiscal 2026, Home Depot's gross margin expanded 25 basis points (bps) year over year to 33.7%, primarily benefiting from tariff refunds. The company recognized $685 million in IEEPA tariff refunds, providing a gross margin benefit of 145 bps. However, incremental fuel, energy and product input costs, including resin and metals, exerted roughly 60 bps of pressure. Additionally, the GMS and Mingledorff's acquisitions created 60 bps of unfavorable mix impacts. Excluding the tariff benefit, these factors highlight underlying profitability challenges.
Looking ahead, management expects rising costs to fully offset tariff refund benefits throughout fiscal 2026, creating margin pressure in the third quarter. Nevertheless, the fourth-quarter gross margin is anticipated to be relatively flat year over year.
For fiscal 2026, management reaffirmed its gross margin guidance of 33.1%, with the operating margin projected at 12.4-12.6% and the adjusted operating margin at 12.8-13%. Continued inflationary pressures and uncertain demand conditions could constrain margin expansion despite ongoing cost-management efforts.
Are Peers Like LOW & WSM Also Witnessing Similar Margin Pressures?
Home Depot's margin challenges reflect broader cost pressures across the home improvement and home furnishings industries, raising questions about whether peers like Lowe's Companies Inc. LOW and Williams-Sonoma Inc. WSM are facing similar profitability headwinds.
Lowe's continues to grapple with mounting margin pressures stemming from higher fuel, transportation and other input costs. In second-quarter fiscal 2026, the gross margin contracted 80 bps to 33%, reflecting acquisition-related mix dilution, partly offset by favorable credit revenue and tariff refunds. Management expects fuel and transportation costs to intensify in the second half. Consequently, the fiscal 2026 adjusted operating margin is projected at 11.6%, highlighting persistent profitability headwinds.
Williams-Sonoma continues to navigate profitability headwinds stemming from elevated tariff-related merchandise costs, rising fuel prices and transportation expenses. In second-quarter fiscal 2026, the non-GAAP gross margin contracted 160 bps to 45.5%, reflecting 230 bps of tariff-related merchandise margin pressure. Management expects tariff headwinds to moderate in the second half, although elevated fuel costs persist. The fiscal 2026 non-GAAP operating margin is projected at 17.8-18.2%, supported by operational efficiencies and sales growth.
HD’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates
Shares of Home Depot have lost 10.8% in the past year compared with the industry’s decline of 8.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
From a valuation standpoint, HD trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.18X compared with the industry’s average of 19.91X.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for HD’s fiscal 2026 and 2027 EPS implies year-over-year growth of 2.2% and 6.6%, respectively. The company’s EPS estimate for fiscal 2026 has moved down by a penny in the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate for fiscal 2027 EPS has edged down 0.3% in the past 30 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Home Depot currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Zacks' Research Chief Names "Stock Most Likely to Double"
Our team of experts has just released the 5 stocks with the greatest probability of gaining +100% or more in the coming months. Of those 5, Director of Research Sheraz Mian highlights the one stock set to climb highest.
This innovative software-as-a-service firm upped its user base +22% year over year. That rate is increasing and margins are expanding as AI efficiencies take effect. Of course, all our elite picks aren't winners, but this one could far surpass earlier Zacks' Stocks Set to Double like D-Wave Quantum, which shot up +680.1%.
Free: See Our Top Stock And 4 Runners UpWant the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD): Free Stock Analysis Report
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW): Free Stock Analysis Report
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM): Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).