Portfolio Risk Model using Kelly Criterion and Monte Carlo Simulation
Portfolio Risk Model using Kelly Criterion and Monte Carlo Simulation
For decades, traders have been using the Kelly Criterion formula to determine the optimal proportion of capital to allocate to an investment or bet to maximize long-term growth while minimizing the risk of ruin. However, blindly following Kelly Criterion using the result of a single backtest is often dangerous for individual traders, as in live trading, trading edge diminishes over time, and past performance is no predictor of future result. In this article, I will present a realistic approach to applying the Kelly Criterion for one or more EA's risk allocation in MetaTrader 5, incorporating Monte Carlo simulation results from Python.
Neural Network in Practice: Pseudoinverse (I)
Neural Network in Practice: Pseudoinverse (I)
Today we will begin to consider how to implement the calculation of pseudo-inverse in pure MQL5 language. The code we are going to look at will be much more complex for beginners than I expected, and I'm still figuring out how to explain it in a simple way. So for now, consider this an opportunity to learn some unusual code. Calmly and attentively. Although it is not aimed at efficient or quick application, its goal is to be as didactic as possible.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 42): ADX Oscillator
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 42): ADX Oscillator
The ADX is another relatively popular technical indicator used by some traders to gauge the strength of a prevalent trend. Acting as a combination of two other indicators, it presents as an oscillator whose patterns we explore in this article with the help of MQL5 wizard assembly and its support classes.
Creating a Trading Administrator Panel in MQL5 (Part VIII): Analytics Panel
Creating a Trading Administrator Panel in MQL5 (Part VIII): Analytics Panel
Today, we delve into incorporating useful trading metrics within a specialized window integrated into the Admin Panel EA. This discussion focuses on the implementation of MQL5 to develop an Analytics Panel and highlights the value of the data it provides to trading administrators. The impact is largely educational, as valuable lessons are drawn from the development process, benefiting both upcoming and experienced developers. This feature demonstrates the limitless opportunities this development series offers in equipping trade managers with advanced software tools. Additionally, we'll explore the implementation of the PieChart and ChartCanvas classes as part of the continued expansion of the Trading Administrator panel’s capabilities.
Header in the Connexus (Part 3): Mastering the Use of HTTP Headers for Requests
Header in the Connexus (Part 3): Mastering the Use of HTTP Headers for Requests
We continue developing the Connexus library. In this chapter, we explore the concept of headers in the HTTP protocol, explaining what they are, what they are for, and how to use them in requests. We cover the main headers used in communications with APIs, and show practical examples of how to configure them in the library.
Trading with the MQL5 Economic Calendar (Part 5): Enhancing the Dashboard with Responsive Controls and Filter Buttons
Trading with the MQL5 Economic Calendar (Part 5): Enhancing the Dashboard with Responsive Controls and Filter Buttons
In this article, we create buttons for currency pair filters, importance levels, time filters, and a cancel option to improve dashboard control. These buttons are programmed to respond dynamically to user actions, allowing seamless interaction. We also automate their behavior to reflect real-time changes on the dashboard. This enhances the overall functionality, mobility, and responsiveness of the panel.
Reimagining Classic Strategies (Part 12): EURUSD Breakout Strategy
Reimagining Classic Strategies (Part 12): EURUSD Breakout Strategy
Join us today as we challenge ourselves to build a profitable break-out trading strategy in MQL5. We selected the EURUSD pair and attempted to trade price breakouts on the hourly timeframe. Our system had difficulty distinguishing between false breakouts and the beginning of true trends. We layered our system with filters intended to minimize our losses whilst increasing our gains. In the end, we successfully made our system profitable and less prone to false breakouts.
Trading Insights Through Volume: Trend Confirmation
Trading Insights Through Volume: Trend Confirmation
The Enhanced Trend Confirmation Technique combines price action, volume analysis, and machine learning to identify genuine market movements. It requires both price breakouts and volume surges (50% above average) for trade validation, while using an LSTM neural network for additional confirmation. The system employs ATR-based position sizing and dynamic risk management, making it adaptable to various market conditions while filtering out false signals.
Trading Insights Through Volume: Moving Beyond OHLC Charts
Trading Insights Through Volume: Moving Beyond OHLC Charts
Algorithmic trading system that combines volume analysis with machine learning techniques, specifically LSTM neural networks. Unlike traditional trading approaches that primarily focus on price movements, this system emphasizes volume patterns and their derivatives to predict market movements. The methodology incorporates three main components: volume derivatives analysis (first and second derivatives), LSTM predictions for volume patterns, and traditional technical indicators.
Trading with the MQL5 Economic Calendar (Part 3): Adding Currency, Importance, and Time Filters
Trading with the MQL5 Economic Calendar (Part 3): Adding Currency, Importance, and Time Filters
In this article, we implement filters in the MQL5 Economic Calendar dashboard to refine news event displays by currency, importance, and time. We first establish filter criteria for each category and then integrate these into the dashboard to display only relevant events. Finally, we ensure each filter dynamically updates to provide traders with focused, real-time economic insights.
Developing a Replay System (Part 53): Things Get Complicated (V)
Developing a Replay System (Part 53): Things Get Complicated (V)
In this article, we'll cover an important topic that few people understand: Custom Events. Dangers. Advantages and disadvantages of these elements. This topic is key for those who want to become a professional programmer in MQL5 or any other language. Here we will focus on MQL5 and MetaTrader 5.
Neural Networks Made Easy (Part 94): Optimizing the Input Sequence
Neural Networks Made Easy (Part 94): Optimizing the Input Sequence
When working with time series, we always use the source data in their historical sequence. But is this the best option? There is an opinion that changing the sequence of the input data will improve the efficiency of the trained models. In this article I invite you to get acquainted with one of the methods for optimizing the input sequence.
HTTP and Connexus (Part 2): Understanding HTTP Architecture and Library Design
HTTP and Connexus (Part 2): Understanding HTTP Architecture and Library Design
This article explores the fundamentals of the HTTP protocol, covering the main methods (GET, POST, PUT, DELETE), status codes and the structure of URLs. In addition, it presents the beginning of the construction of the Conexus library with the CQueryParam and CURL classes, which facilitate the manipulation of URLs and query parameters in HTTP requests.
Self Optimizing Expert Advisor With MQL5 And Python (Part IV): Stacking Models
Self Optimizing Expert Advisor With MQL5 And Python (Part IV): Stacking Models
Today, we will demonstrate how you can build AI-powered trading applications capable of learning from their own mistakes. We will demonstrate a technique known as stacking, whereby we use 2 models to make 1 prediction. The first model is typically a weaker learner, and the second model is typically a more powerful model that learns the residuals of our weaker learner. Our goal is to create an ensemble of models, to hopefully attain higher accuracy.
Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 2):  Analytical Comment Script
Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 2): Analytical Comment Script
Aligned with our vision of simplifying price action, we are pleased to introduce another tool that can significantly enhance your market analysis and help you make well-informed decisions. This tool displays key technical indicators such as previous day's prices, significant support and resistance levels, and trading volume, while automatically generating visual cues on the chart.
Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) algorithm (Part I): Process chemistry in optimization
Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) algorithm (Part I): Process chemistry in optimization
In the first part of this article, we will dive into the world of chemical reactions and discover a new approach to optimization! Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) uses principles derived from the laws of thermodynamics to achieve efficient results. We will reveal the secrets of decomposition, synthesis and other chemical processes that became the basis of this innovative method.
Visualizing deals on a chart (Part 2): Data graphical display
Visualizing deals on a chart (Part 2): Data graphical display
Here we are going to develop a script from scratch that simplifies unloading print screens of deals for analyzing trading entries. All the necessary information on a single deal is to be conveniently displayed on one chart with the ability to draw different timeframes.
Connexus Observer (Part 8): Adding a Request Observer
Connexus Observer (Part 8): Adding a Request Observer
In this final installment of our Connexus library series, we explored the implementation of the Observer pattern, as well as essential refactorings to file paths and method names. This series covered the entire development of Connexus, designed to simplify HTTP communication in complex applications.
Neural Networks Made Easy (Part 92): Adaptive Forecasting in Frequency and Time Domains
Neural Networks Made Easy (Part 92): Adaptive Forecasting in Frequency and Time Domains
The authors of the FreDF method experimentally confirmed the advantage of combined forecasting in the frequency and time domains. However, the use of the weight hyperparameter is not optimal for non-stationary time series. In this article, we will get acquainted with the method of adaptive combination of forecasts in frequency and time domains.
How to Implement Auto Optimization in MQL5 Expert Advisors
How to Implement Auto Optimization in MQL5 Expert Advisors
Step by step guide for auto optimization in MQL5 for Expert Advisors. We will cover robust optimization logic, best practices for parameter selection, and how to reconstruct strategies with back-testing. Additionally, higher-level methods like walk-forward optimization will be discussed to enhance your trading approach.
Introduction to Connexus (Part 1): How to Use the WebRequest Function?
Introduction to Connexus (Part 1): How to Use the WebRequest Function?
This article is the beginning of a series of developments for a library called “Connexus” to facilitate HTTP requests with MQL5. The goal of this project is to provide the end user with this opportunity and show how to use this helper library. I intended to make it as simple as possible to facilitate study and to provide the possibility for future developments.