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ARIMA Forecasting Indicator in MQL5
ARIMA Forecasting Indicator in MQL5
In this article we are implementing ARIMA forecasting indicator in MQL5. It examines how the ARIMA model generates forecasts, its applicability to the Forex market and the stock market in general. It also explains what AR autoregression is, how autoregressive models are used for forecasting, and how the autoregression mechanism works.
Angular Analysis of Price Movements: A Hybrid Model for Predicting Financial Markets
Angular Analysis of Price Movements: A Hybrid Model for Predicting Financial Markets
What is angular analysis of financial markets? How to use price action angles and machine learning to make accurate forecasts with 67% accuracy? How to combine a regression and classification model with angular features and obtain a working algorithm? What does Gann have to do with it? Why are price movement angles a good indicator for machine learning?
Analyzing Overbought and Oversold Trends Via Chaos Theory Approaches
Analyzing Overbought and Oversold Trends Via Chaos Theory Approaches
We determine the overbought and oversold condition of the market according to chaos theory: integrating the principles of chaos theory, fractal geometry and neural networks to forecast financial markets. The study demonstrates the use of the Lyapunov exponent as a measure of market randomness and the dynamic adaptation of trading signals. The methodology includes an algorithm for generating fractal noise, hyperbolic tangent activation, and moment optimization.
Integrating Computer Vision into Trading in MQL5 (Part 1): Creating Basic Functions
Integrating Computer Vision into Trading in MQL5 (Part 1): Creating Basic Functions
The EURUSD forecasting system with the use of computer vision and deep learning. Learn how convolutional neural networks can recognize complex price patterns in the foreign exchange market and predict exchange rate movements with up to 54% accuracy. The article shares the methodology for creating an algorithm that uses artificial intelligence technologies for visual analysis of charts instead of traditional technical indicators. The author demonstrates the process of transforming price data into "images", their processing by a neural network, and a unique opportunity to peer into the "consciousness" of AI through activation maps and attention heatmaps. Practical Python code using the MetaTrader 5 library allows readers to reproduce the system and apply it in their own trading.
Neural Networks in Trading: Multi-Task Learning Based on the ResNeXt Model
Neural Networks in Trading: Multi-Task Learning Based on the ResNeXt Model
A multi-task learning framework based on ResNeXt optimizes the analysis of financial data, taking into account its high dimensionality, nonlinearity, and time dependencies. The use of group convolution and specialized heads allows the model to effectively extract key features from the input data.
Biological neuron for forecasting financial time series
Biological neuron for forecasting financial time series
We will build a biologically correct system of neurons for time series forecasting. The introduction of a plasma-like environment into the neural network architecture creates a kind of "collective intelligence," where each neuron influences the system's operation not only through direct connections, but also through long-range electromagnetic interactions. Let's see how the neural brain modeling system will perform in the market.
Time Evolution Travel Algorithm (TETA)
Time Evolution Travel Algorithm (TETA)
This is my own algorithm. The article presents the Time Evolution Travel Algorithm (TETA) inspired by the concept of parallel universes and time streams. The basic idea of the algorithm is that, although time travel in the conventional sense is impossible, we can choose a sequence of events that lead to different realities.
Neural Networks in Trading: Models Using Wavelet Transform and Multi-Task Attention
Neural Networks in Trading: Models Using Wavelet Transform and Multi-Task Attention
We invite you to explore a framework that combines wavelet transforms and a multi-task self-attention model, aimed at improving the responsiveness and accuracy of forecasting in volatile market conditions. The wavelet transform allows asset returns to be decomposed into high and low frequencies, carefully capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations.
MetaTrader 5 Machine Learning Blueprint (Part 3): Trend-Scanning Labeling Method
MetaTrader 5 Machine Learning Blueprint (Part 3): Trend-Scanning Labeling Method
We have built a robust feature engineering pipeline using proper tick-based bars to eliminate data leakage and solved the critical problem of labeling with meta-labeled triple-barrier signals. This installment covers the advanced labeling technique, trend-scanning, for adaptive horizons. After covering the theory, an example shows how trend-scanning labels can be used with meta-labeling to improve on the classic moving average crossover strategy.
Neural Networks in Trading: A Hybrid Trading Framework with Predictive Coding (Final Part)
Neural Networks in Trading: A Hybrid Trading Framework with Predictive Coding (Final Part)
We continue our examination of the StockFormer hybrid trading system, which combines predictive coding and reinforcement learning algorithms for financial time series analysis. The system is based on three Transformer branches with a Diversified Multi-Head Attention (DMH-Attn) mechanism that enables the capturing of complex patterns and interdependencies between assets. Previously, we got acquainted with the theoretical aspects of the framework and implemented the DMH-Attn mechanisms. Today, we will talk about the model architecture and training.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 81): Using Patterns of Ichimoku and the ADX-Wilder with Beta VAE Inference Learning
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 81): Using Patterns of Ichimoku and the ADX-Wilder with Beta VAE Inference Learning
This piece follows up ‘Part-80’, where we examined the pairing of Ichimoku and the ADX under a Reinforcement Learning framework. We now shift focus to Inference Learning. Ichimoku and ADX are complimentary as already covered, however we are going to revisit the conclusions of the last article related to pipeline use. For our inference learning, we are using the Beta algorithm of a Variational Auto Encoder. We also stick with the implementation of a custom signal class designed for integration with the MQL5 Wizard.
Price movement discretization methods in Python
Price movement discretization methods in Python
We will look at price discretization methods using Python + MQL5. In this article, I will share my practical experience developing a Python library that implements a wide range of approaches to bar formation — from classic Volume and Range bars to more exotic methods like Renko and Kagi. We will consider three-line breakout candles and range bars analyzing their statistics and trying to define how else the prices can be represented discretely.
Reimagining Classic Strategies (Part 16): Double Bollinger Band Breakouts
Reimagining Classic Strategies (Part 16): Double Bollinger Band Breakouts
This article walks the reader through a reimagined version of the classical Bollinger Band breakout strategy. It identifies key weaknesses in the original approach, such as its well-known susceptibility to false breakouts. The article aims to introduce a possible solution: the Double Bollinger Band trading strategy. This relatively lesser known approach supplements the weaknesses of the classical version and offers a more dynamic perspective on financial markets. It helps us overcome the old limitations defined by the original rules, providing traders with a stronger and more adaptive framework.
Cyclic Parthenogenesis Algorithm (CPA)
Cyclic Parthenogenesis Algorithm (CPA)
The article considers a new population optimization algorithm - Cyclic Parthenogenesis Algorithm (CPA), inspired by the unique reproductive strategy of aphids. The algorithm combines two reproduction mechanisms — parthenogenesis and sexual reproduction — and also utilizes the colonial structure of the population with the possibility of migration between colonies. The key features of the algorithm are adaptive switching between different reproductive strategies and a system of information exchange between colonies through the flight mechanism.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 70): Using Patterns of SAR and the RVI with a Exponential Kernel Network
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 70): Using Patterns of SAR and the RVI with a Exponential Kernel Network
We follow up our last article, where we introduced the indicator pair of the SAR and the RVI, by considering how this indicator pairing could be extended with Machine Learning. SAR and RVI are a trend and momentum complimentary pairing. Our machine learning approach uses a convolution neural network that engages the Exponential kernel in sizing its kernels and channels, when fine-tuning the forecasts of this indicator pairing. As always, this is done in a custom signal class file that works with the MQL5 wizard to assemble an Expert Advisor.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 80): Using Patterns of Ichimoku and the ADX-Wilder with TD3 Reinforcement Learning
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 80): Using Patterns of Ichimoku and the ADX-Wilder with TD3 Reinforcement Learning
This article follows up ‘Part-74’, where we examined the pairing of Ichimoku and the ADX under a Supervised Learning framework, by moving our focus to Reinforcement Learning. Ichimoku and ADX form a complementary combination of support/resistance mapping and trend strength spotting. In this installment, we indulge in how the Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) algorithm can be used with this indicator set. As with earlier parts of the series, the implementation is carried out in a custom signal class designed for integration with the MQL5 Wizard, which facilitates seamless Expert Advisor assembly.
Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 4): Overcoming Irreducible Error Using Multiple Forecast Horizons
Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 4): Overcoming Irreducible Error Using Multiple Forecast Horizons
Machine learning is often viewed through statistical or linear algebraic lenses, but this article emphasizes a geometric perspective of model predictions. It demonstrates that models do not truly approximate the target but rather map it onto a new coordinate system, creating an inherent misalignment that results in irreducible error. The article proposes that multi-step predictions, comparing the model’s forecasts across different horizons, offer a more effective approach than direct comparisons with the target. By applying this method to a trading model, the article demonstrates significant improvements in profitability and accuracy without changing the underlying model.
Functions for activating neurons during training: The key to fast convergence?
Functions for activating neurons during training: The key to fast convergence?
This article presents a study of the interaction of different activation functions with optimization algorithms in the context of neural network training. Particular attention is paid to the comparison of the classical ADAM and its population version when working with a wide range of activation functions, including the oscillating ACON and Snake functions. Using a minimalistic MLP (1-1-1) architecture and a single training example, the influence of activation functions on the optimization is isolated from other factors. The article proposes an approach to manage network weights through the boundaries of activation functions and a weight reflection mechanism, which allows avoiding problems with saturation and stagnation in training.
Quantum computing and trading: A fresh approach to price forecasts
Quantum computing and trading: A fresh approach to price forecasts
The article describes an innovative approach to forecasting price movements in financial markets using quantum computing. The main focus is on the application of the Quantum Phase Estimation (QPE) algorithm to find prototypes of price patterns allowing traders to significantly speed up the market data analysis.
Pipelines in MQL5
Pipelines in MQL5
In this piece, we look at a key data preparation step for machine learning that is gaining rapid significance. Data Preprocessing Pipelines. These in essence are a streamlined sequence of data transformation steps that prepare raw data before it is fed to a model. As uninteresting as this may initially seem to the uninducted, this ‘data standardization’ not only saves on training time and execution costs, but it goes a long way in ensuring better generalization. In this article we are focusing on some SCIKIT-LEARN preprocessing functions, and while we are not exploiting the MQL5 Wizard, we will return to it in coming articles.
Neural Networks in Trading: A Hybrid Trading Framework with Predictive Coding (StockFormer)
Neural Networks in Trading: A Hybrid Trading Framework with Predictive Coding (StockFormer)
In this article, we will discuss the hybrid trading system StockFormer, which combines predictive coding and reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. The framework uses 3 Transformer branches with an integrated Diversified Multi-Head Attention (DMH-Attn) mechanism that improves on the vanilla attention module with a multi-headed Feed-Forward block, allowing it to capture diverse time series patterns across different subspaces.
Data Science and ML (Part 42): Forex Time series Forecasting using ARIMA in Python, Everything you need to Know
Data Science and ML (Part 42): Forex Time series Forecasting using ARIMA in Python, Everything you need to Know
ARIMA, short for Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average, is a powerful traditional time series forecasting model. With the ability to detect spikes and fluctuations in a time series data, this model can make accurate predictions on the next values. In this article, we are going to understand what is it, how it operates, what you can do with it when it comes to predicting the next prices in the market with high accuracy and much more.
Dynamic mode decomposition applied to univariate time series in MQL5
Dynamic mode decomposition applied to univariate time series in MQL5
Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is a technique usually applied to high-dimensional datasets. In this article, we demonstrate the application of DMD on univariate time series, showing its ability to characterize a series as well as make forecasts. In doing so, we will investigate MQL5's built-in implementation of dynamic mode decomposition, paying particular attention to the new matrix method, DynamicModeDecomposition().
Neural Networks in Trading: An Ensemble of Agents with Attention Mechanisms (MASAAT)
Neural Networks in Trading: An Ensemble of Agents with Attention Mechanisms (MASAAT)
We introduce the Multi-Agent Self-Adaptive Portfolio Optimization Framework (MASAAT), which combines attention mechanisms and time series analysis. MASAAT generates a set of agents that analyze price series and directional changes, enabling the identification of significant fluctuations in asset prices at different levels of detail.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 62): Using Patterns of ADX and CCI with Reinforcement-Learning TRPO
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 62): Using Patterns of ADX and CCI with Reinforcement-Learning TRPO
The ADX Oscillator and CCI oscillator are trend following and momentum indicators that can be paired when developing an Expert Advisor. We continue where we left off in the last article by examining how in-use training, and updating of our developed model, can be made thanks to reinforcement-learning. We are using an algorithm we are yet to cover in these series, known as Trusted Region Policy Optimization. And, as always, Expert Advisor assembly by the MQL5 Wizard allows us to set up our model(s) for testing much quicker and also in a way where it can be distributed and tested with different signal types.
Black Hole Algorithm (BHA)
Black Hole Algorithm (BHA)
The Black Hole Algorithm (BHA) uses the principles of black hole gravity to optimize solutions. In this article, we will look at how BHA attracts the best solutions while avoiding local extremes, and why this algorithm has become a powerful tool for solving complex problems. Learn how simple ideas can lead to impressive results in the world of optimization.
Multi-module trading robot in Python and MQL5 (Part I): Creating basic architecture and first modules
Multi-module trading robot in Python and MQL5 (Part I): Creating basic architecture and first modules
We are going to develop a modular trading system that combines Python for data analysis with MQL5 for trade execution. Four independent modules monitor different market aspects in parallel: volumes, arbitrage, economics and risks, and use RandomForest with 400 trees for analysis. Particular emphasis is placed on risk management, since even the most advanced trading algorithms are useless without proper risk management.