Building a purchasing power parity (PPP)-based exchange rate analysis system using Python. The author developed an algorithm with 5 methods for calculating fair exchange rates using IMF data. A practical guide to fundamental currency analysis, economic data processing, and integration with trading systems. Full code in open source.
The article demonstrates how Python and MetaTrader 5 integration combines research flexibility and trade execution into a single workflow. Python is used for data analysis, feature selection and model training, while MetaTrader 5 is used for testing and trading automation. This approach simplifies the transfer of solutions into practice, increases reproducibility, and makes the development of trading systems faster and more structured.
Mining central bank balance sheet data provides a picture of global liquidity in the Forex market and key currencies. We combine data from the Fed, ECB, BOJ and PBoC into a composite index and use machine learning to uncover hidden patterns. This approach turns raw data into real trading signals by combining fundamental and technical analysis.
We continue to build the algorithms that form the basis of the DADA framework, which is an advanced tool for detecting anomalies in time series. This approach enables effective distinguishing random fluctuations from significant deviations. Unlike classical methods, DADA dynamically adapts to different data types, choosing the optimal compression level in each specific case.
Self-training EA with a neural network based on a state matrix. We combine Markov chains with a multilayer neural network MLP developed using the ALGLIB MQL5 library. How can Markov chains and neural networks be combined for Forex forecasting?
Computer vision for trading: how it works and how to develop it step by step. We create an algorithm for recognition of RGB images of price charts using the attention mechanism and a bidirectional LSTM layer. As a result, we obtain a working model for forecasting the EURUSD price with the accuracy of up to 55% in the validation section.
The article contains a detailed description of the cross-rate calculation algorithm, a visualization of the imbalance matrix, and recommendations for optimally setting the MinDiscrepancy and MaxRisk parameters for efficient trading. The system automatically calculates the "fair value" of each currency pair using cross rates, generating buy signals in case of negative deviations and sell signals in case of positive ones.
In this article we are implementing ARIMA forecasting indicator in MQL5. It examines how the ARIMA model generates forecasts, its applicability to the Forex market and the stock market in general. It also explains what AR autoregression is, how autoregressive models are used for forecasting, and how the autoregression mechanism works.
What is angular analysis of financial markets? How to use price action angles and machine learning to make accurate forecasts with 67% accuracy? How to combine a regression and classification model with angular features and obtain a working algorithm? What does Gann have to do with it? Why are price movement angles a good indicator for machine learning?
We determine the overbought and oversold condition of the market according to chaos theory: integrating the principles of chaos theory, fractal geometry and neural networks to forecast financial markets. The study demonstrates the use of the Lyapunov exponent as a measure of market randomness and the dynamic adaptation of trading signals. The methodology includes an algorithm for generating fractal noise, hyperbolic tangent activation, and moment optimization.
The EURUSD forecasting system with the use of computer vision and deep learning. Learn how convolutional neural networks can recognize complex price patterns in the foreign exchange market and predict exchange rate movements with up to 54% accuracy. The article shares the methodology for creating an algorithm that uses artificial intelligence technologies for visual analysis of charts instead of traditional technical indicators. The author demonstrates the process of transforming price data into "images", their processing by a neural network, and a unique opportunity to peer into the "consciousness" of AI through activation maps and attention heatmaps. Practical Python code using the MetaTrader 5 library allows readers to reproduce the system and apply it in their own trading.
We continue to explore the innovative Chimera framework – a two-dimensional state-space model that uses neural network technologies to analyze multidimensional time series. This method provides high forecasting accuracy with low computational cost.
We continue exploring a multi-task learning framework based on ResNeXt, which is characterized by modularity, high computational efficiency, and the ability to identify stable patterns in data. Using a single encoder and specialized "heads" reduces the risk of model overfitting and improves the quality of forecasts.
A multi-task learning framework based on ResNeXt optimizes the analysis of financial data, taking into account its high dimensionality, nonlinearity, and time dependencies. The use of group convolution and specialized heads allows the model to effectively extract key features from the input data.
We continue to build the Hidformer hierarchical dual-tower transformer model designed for analyzing and forecasting complex multivariate time series. In this article, we will bring the work we started earlier to its logical conclusion — we will test the model on real historical data.
We will build a biologically correct system of neurons for time series forecasting. The introduction of a plasma-like environment into the neural network architecture creates a kind of "collective intelligence," where each neuron influences the system's operation not only through direct connections, but also through long-range electromagnetic interactions. Let's see how the neural brain modeling system will perform in the market.
This is the first part of an article series presenting the implementation of bivariate copulae in MQL5. This article presents code implementing Gaussian and Student's t-copulae. It also delves into the fundamentals of statistical copulae and related topics. The code is based on the Arbitragelab Python package by Hudson and Thames.
This is my own algorithm. The article presents the Time Evolution Travel Algorithm (TETA) inspired by the concept of parallel universes and time streams. The basic idea of the algorithm is that, although time travel in the conventional sense is impossible, we can choose a sequence of events that lead to different realities.
In the previous article, we explored the theoretical foundations and began implementing the approaches of the Multitask-Stockformer framework, which combines the wavelet transform and the Self-Attention multitask model. We continue to implement the algorithms of this framework and evaluate their effectiveness on real historical data.
In this article, I introduce an innovative trading algorithm that combines evolutionary algorithms with deep reinforcement learning for Forex trading. The algorithm uses the mechanism of extinction of inefficient individuals to optimize the trading strategy.
We invite you to explore a framework that combines wavelet transforms and a multi-task self-attention model, aimed at improving the responsiveness and accuracy of forecasting in volatile market conditions. The wavelet transform allows asset returns to be decomposed into high and low frequencies, carefully capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations.
We have built a robust feature engineering pipeline using proper tick-based bars to eliminate data leakage and solved the critical problem of labeling with meta-labeled triple-barrier signals. This installment covers the advanced labeling technique, trend-scanning, for adaptive horizons. After covering the theory, an example shows how trend-scanning labels can be used with meta-labeling to improve on the classic moving average crossover strategy.
We continue our examination of the StockFormer hybrid trading system, which combines predictive coding and reinforcement learning algorithms for financial time series analysis. The system is based on three Transformer branches with a Diversified Multi-Head Attention (DMH-Attn) mechanism that enables the capturing of complex patterns and interdependencies between assets. Previously, we got acquainted with the theoretical aspects of the framework and implemented the DMH-Attn mechanisms. Today, we will talk about the model architecture and training.
This piece follows up ‘Part-80’, where we examined the pairing of Ichimoku and the ADX under a Reinforcement Learning framework. We now shift focus to Inference Learning. Ichimoku and ADX are complimentary as already covered, however we are going to revisit the conclusions of the last article related to pipeline use. For our inference learning, we are using the Beta algorithm of a Variational Auto Encoder. We also stick with the implementation of a custom signal class designed for integration with the MQL5 Wizard.
We will look at price discretization methods using Python + MQL5. In this article, I will share my practical experience developing a Python library that implements a wide range of approaches to bar formation — from classic Volume and Range bars to more exotic methods like Renko and Kagi. We will consider three-line breakout candles and range bars analyzing their statistics and trying to define how else the prices can be represented discretely.
This article walks the reader through a reimagined version of the classical Bollinger Band breakout strategy. It identifies key weaknesses in the original approach, such as its well-known susceptibility to false breakouts. The article aims to introduce a possible solution: the Double Bollinger Band trading strategy. This relatively lesser known approach supplements the weaknesses of the classical version and offers a more dynamic perspective on financial markets. It helps us overcome the old limitations defined by the original rules, providing traders with a stronger and more adaptive framework.
The article considers a new population optimization algorithm - Cyclic Parthenogenesis Algorithm (CPA), inspired by the unique reproductive strategy of aphids. The algorithm combines two reproduction mechanisms — parthenogenesis and sexual reproduction — and also utilizes the colonial structure of the population with the possibility of migration between colonies. The key features of the algorithm are adaptive switching between different reproductive strategies and a system of information exchange between colonies through the flight mechanism.
Explore how Vector Autoregression (VAR) models can forecast Forex OHLC (Open, High, Low, and Close) time series data. This article covers VAR implementation, model training, and real-time forecasting in MetaTrader 5, helping traders analyze interdependent currency movements and improve their trading strategies.
Have you ever looked at the chart and felt that strange sensation… that there’s a pattern hidden just beneath the surface? A secret code that might reveal where prices are headed if only you could crack it? Meet LGMM, the Market’s Hidden Pattern Detector. A machine learning model that helps identify those hidden patterns in the market.
We follow up our last article, where we introduced the indicator pair of the SAR and the RVI, by considering how this indicator pairing could be extended with Machine Learning. SAR and RVI are a trend and momentum complimentary pairing. Our machine learning approach uses a convolution neural network that engages the Exponential kernel in sizing its kernels and channels, when fine-tuning the forecasts of this indicator pairing. As always, this is done in a custom signal class file that works with the MQL5 wizard to assemble an Expert Advisor.
This article follows up ‘Part-74’, where we examined the pairing of Ichimoku and the ADX under a Supervised Learning framework, by moving our focus to Reinforcement Learning. Ichimoku and ADX form a complementary combination of support/resistance mapping and trend strength spotting. In this installment, we indulge in how the Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) algorithm can be used with this indicator set. As with earlier parts of the series, the implementation is carried out in a custom signal class designed for integration with the MQL5 Wizard, which facilitates seamless Expert Advisor assembly.
Machine learning is often viewed through statistical or linear algebraic lenses, but this article emphasizes a geometric perspective of model predictions. It demonstrates that models do not truly approximate the target but rather map it onto a new coordinate system, creating an inherent misalignment that results in irreducible error. The article proposes that multi-step predictions, comparing the model’s forecasts across different horizons, offer a more effective approach than direct comparisons with the target. By applying this method to a trading model, the article demonstrates significant improvements in profitability and accuracy without changing the underlying model.
The article describes the experience of developing a hybrid trading system that combines classical technical analysis with neural networks. The author provides a detailed analysis of the system architecture from basic pattern analysis and neural network structure to the mechanisms behind trading decisions, and shares real code and practical observations.
This article presents a study of the interaction of different activation functions with optimization algorithms in the context of neural network training. Particular attention is paid to the comparison of the classical ADAM and its population version when working with a wide range of activation functions, including the oscillating ACON and Snake functions. Using a minimalistic MLP (1-1-1) architecture and a single training example, the influence of activation functions on the optimization is isolated from other factors. The article proposes an approach to manage network weights through the boundaries of activation functions and a weight reflection mechanism, which allows avoiding problems with saturation and stagnation in training.
The article describes an innovative approach to forecasting price movements in financial markets using quantum computing. The main focus is on the application of the Quantum Phase Estimation (QPE) algorithm to find prototypes of price patterns allowing traders to significantly speed up the market data analysis.
In this piece, we look at a key data preparation step for machine learning that is gaining rapid significance. Data Preprocessing Pipelines. These in essence are a streamlined sequence of data transformation steps that prepare raw data before it is fed to a model. As uninteresting as this may initially seem to the uninducted, this ‘data standardization’ not only saves on training time and execution costs, but it goes a long way in ensuring better generalization. In this article we are focusing on some SCIKIT-LEARN preprocessing functions, and while we are not exploiting the MQL5 Wizard, we will return to it in coming articles.
In the previous article, we introduced the multi-agent adaptive framework MASAAT, which uses an ensemble of agents to perform cross-analysis of multimodal time series at different data scales. Today we will continue implementing the approaches of this framework in MQL5 and bring this work to a logical conclusion.
In this article, we will discuss the hybrid trading system StockFormer, which combines predictive coding and reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms. The framework uses 3 Transformer branches with an integrated Diversified Multi-Head Attention (DMH-Attn) mechanism that improves on the vanilla attention module with a multi-headed Feed-Forward block, allowing it to capture diverse time series patterns across different subspaces.
ARIMA, short for Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average, is a powerful traditional time series forecasting model. With the ability to detect spikes and fluctuations in a time series data, this model can make accurate predictions on the next values. In this article, we are going to understand what is it, how it operates, what you can do with it when it comes to predicting the next prices in the market with high accuracy and much more.
Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is a technique usually applied to high-dimensional datasets. In this article, we demonstrate the application of DMD on univariate time series, showing its ability to characterize a series as well as make forecasts. In doing so, we will investigate MQL5's built-in implementation of dynamic mode decomposition, paying particular attention to the new matrix method, DynamicModeDecomposition().
