Algorithmic Trading Articles for Statistics and analysis

Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 53): Pattern Density Heatmap for Support and Resistance Zone Discovery

This article introduces the Pattern Density Heatmap, a price‑action mapping tool that transforms repeated candlestick pattern detections into statistically significant support and resistance zones. Rather than treating each signal in isolation, the EA aggregates detections into fixed price bins, scores their density with optional recency weighting, and confirms levels against higher‑timeframe data. The resulting heatmap reveals where the market has historically reacted—levels that can be used proactively for trade timing, risk management, and strategy confidence across any trading style.

Automating Trading Strategies in MQL5 (Part 43): Adaptive Linear Regression Channel Strategy

In this article, we implement an adaptive Linear Regression Channel system in MQL5 that automatically calculates the regression line and standard deviation channel over a user-defined period, only activates when the slope exceeds a minimum threshold to confirm a clear trend, and dynamically recreates or extends the channel when the price breaks out by a configurable percentage of channel width.

Automating Trading Strategies in MQL5 (Part 44): Change of Character (CHoCH) Detection with Swing High/Low Breaks

In this article, we develop a Change of Character (CHoCH) detection system in MQL5 that identifies swing highs and lows over a user-defined bar length, labels them as HH/LH for highs or LL/HL for lows to determine trend direction, and triggers trades on breaks of these swing points, indicating a potential reversal, and trades the breaks when the structure changes.

Implementing Practical Modules from Other Languages in MQL5 (Part 05): The Logging module from Python, Log Like a Pro

Integrating Python's logging module with MQL5 empowers traders with a systematic logging approach, simplifying the process of monitoring, debugging, and documenting trading activities. This article explains the adaptation process, offering traders a powerful tool for maintaining clarity and organization in trading software development.

Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 8): Rolling Windows Eigenvector Comparison for Portfolio Rebalancing

This article proposes using Rolling Windows Eigenvector Comparison for early imbalance diagnostics and portfolio rebalancing in a mean-reversion statistical arbitrage strategy based on cointegrated stocks. It contrasts this technique with traditional In-Sample/Out-of-Sample ADF validation, showing that eigenvector shifts can signal the need for rebalancing even when IS/OOS ADF still indicates a stationary spread. While the method is intended mainly for live trading monitoring, the article concludes that eigenvector comparison could also be integrated into the scoring system—though its actual contribution to performance remains to be tested.

Mastering Fair Value Gaps: Formation, Logic, and Automated Trading with Breakers and Market Structure Shifts

This is an article that I have written aimed to expound and explain Fair Value Gaps, their formation logic for occurring, and automated trading with breakers and market structure shifts.

Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 38): Tick Buffer VWAP and Short-Window Imbalance Engine

In Part 38, we build a production-grade MT5 monitoring panel that converts raw ticks into actionable signals. The EA buffers tick data to compute tick-level VWAP, a short-window imbalance (flow) metric, and ATR-based position sizing. It then visualizes spread, ATR, and flow with low-flicker bars. The system calculates a suggested lot size and a 1R stop, and issues configurable alerts for tight spreads, strong flow, and edge conditions. Auto-trading is intentionally disabled; the focus remains on robust signal generation and a clean user experience.

How to build and optimize a cycle-based trading system (Detrended Price Oscillator - DPO)

This article explains how to design and optimise a trading system using the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO) in MQL5. It outlines the indicator's core logic, demonstrating how it identifies short-term cycles by filtering out long-term trends. Through a series of step-by-step examples and simple strategies, readers will learn how to code it, define entry and exit signals, and conduct backtesting. Finally, the article presents practical optimization methods to enhance performance and adapt the system to changing market conditions.

Creating Custom Indicators in MQL5 (Part 1): Building a Pivot-Based Trend Indicator with Canvas Gradient

In this article, we create a Pivot-Based Trend Indicator in MQL5 that calculates fast and slow pivot lines over user-defined periods, detects trend directions based on price relative to these lines, and signals trend starts with arrows while optionally extending lines beyond the current bar. The indicator supports dynamic visualization with separate up/down lines in customizable colors, dotted fast lines that change color on trend shifts, and optional gradient filling between lines, using a canvas object for enhanced trend-area highlighting.

Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 9): Backtesting Portfolio Weights Updates

This article describes the use of CSV files for backtesting portfolio weights updates in a mean-reversion-based strategy that uses statistical arbitrage through cointegrated stocks. It goes from feeding the database with the results of a Rolling Windows Eigenvector Comparison (RWEC) to comparing the backtest reports. In the meantime, the article details the role of each RWEC parameter and its impact in the overall backtest result, showing how the comparison of the relative drawdown can help us to further improve those parameters.

Creating Custom Indicators in MQL5 (Part 2): Building a Gauge-Style RSI Display with Canvas and Needle Mechanics

In this article, we develop a gauge-style RSI indicator in MQL5 that visualizes Relative Strength Index values on a circular scale with a dynamic needle, color-coded ranges for overbought and oversold levels, and customizable legends. We utilize the Canvas class to draw elements like arcs, ticks, and pies, ensuring smooth updates on new RSI data.

The article presents a new metaheuristic algorithm, Chaos Game Optimization (CGO), which demonstrates a unique ability to maintain high efficiency when dealing with high-dimensional problems. Unlike most optimization algorithms, CGO not only does not lose, but sometimes even increases performance when scaling a problem, which is its key feature.

Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 5): Screening

This article proposes an asset screening process for a statistical arbitrage trading strategy through cointegrated stocks. The system starts with the regular filtering by economic factors, like asset sector and industry, and finishes with a list of criteria for a scoring system. For each statistical test used in the screening, a respective Python class was developed: Pearson correlation, Engle-Granger cointegration, Johansen cointegration, and ADF/KPSS stationarity. These Python classes are provided along with a personal note from the author about the use of AI assistants for software development.

Building a Trading System (Part 4): How Random Exits Influence Trading Expectancy

Many traders have experienced this situation, often stick to their entry criteria but struggle with trade management. Even with the right setups, emotional decision-making—such as panic exits before trades reach their take-profit or stop-loss levels—can lead to a declining equity curve. How can traders overcome this issue and improve their results? This article will address these questions by examining random win-rates and demonstrating, through Monte Carlo simulation, how traders can refine their strategies by taking profits at reasonable levels before the original target is reached.

Data Science and ML (Part 47): Forecasting the Market Using the DeepAR model in Python

In this article, we will attempt to predict the market with a decent model for time series forecasting named DeepAR. A model that is a combination of deep neural networks and autoregressive properties found in models like ARIMA and Vector Autoregressive (VAR).

Creating a mean-reversion strategy based on machine learning

This article proposes another original approach to creating trading systems based on machine learning, using clustering and trade labeling for mean reversion strategies.

Implementing Practical Modules from Other Languages in MQL5 (Part 06): Python-Like File IO operations in MQL5

This article shows how to simplify complex MQL5 file operations by building a Python-style interface for effortless reading and writing. It explains how to recreate Python’s intuitive file-handling patterns through custom functions and classes. The result is a cleaner, more reliable approach to MQL5 file I/O.

Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 47): Tracking Forex Sessions and Breakouts in MetaTrader 5

Global market sessions shape the rhythm of the trading day, and understanding their overlap is vital to timing entries and exits. In this article, we’ll build an interactive trading sessions  EA that brings those global hours to life directly on your chart. The EA automatically plots color‑coded rectangles for the Asia, Tokyo, London, and New York sessions, updating in real time as each market opens or closes. It features on‑chart toggle buttons, a dynamic information panel, and a scrolling ticker headline that streams live status and breakout messages. Tested on different brokers, this EA combines precision with style—helping traders see volatility transitions, identify cross‑session breakouts, and stay visually connected to the global market’s pulse.

From Novice to Expert: Parameter Control Utility

Imagine transforming the traditional EA or indicator input properties into a real-time, on-chart control interface. This discussion builds upon our foundational work in the Market Periods Synchronizer indicator, marking a significant evolution in how we visualize and manage higher-timeframe (HTF) market structures. Here, we turn that concept into a fully interactive utility—a dashboard that brings dynamic control and enhanced multi-period price action visualization directly onto the chart. Join us as we explore how this innovation reshapes the way traders interact with their tools.

Successful Restaurateur Algorithm (SRA) is an innovative optimization method inspired by restaurant business management principles. Unlike traditional approaches, SRA does not discard weak solutions, but improves them by combining with elements of successful ones. The algorithm shows competitive results and offers a fresh perspective on balancing exploration and exploitation in optimization problems.

Sigma Score Indicator for MetaTrader 5: A Simple Statistical Anomaly Detector

Build a practical MetaTrader 5 “Sigma Score” indicator from scratch and learn what it really measures: The z-score of log returns (how many standard deviations the latest move is from the recent average). The article walks through every code block in OnInit(), OnCalculate(), and OnDeinit(), then shows how to interpret thresholds (e.g., ±2) and apply the Sigma Score as a simple “market stress meter” for mean-reversion and momentum trading.

Building Volatility models in MQL5 (Part I): The Initial Implementation

In this article, we present an MQL5 library for modeling volatility, designed to function similarly to Python's arch package. The library currently supports the specification of common conditional mean (HAR, AR, Constant Mean, Zero Mean) and conditional volatility (Constant Variance, ARCH, GARCH) models.

MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 11): Correlation Matrix Dashboard (Pearson, Spearman, Kendall) with Heatmap and Standard Modes

In this article, we build a correlation matrix dashboard in MQL5 to compute asset relationships using Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall methods over a set timeframe and bars. The system offers standard mode with color thresholds and p-value stars, plus heatmap mode with gradient visuals for correlation strengths. It includes an interactive UI with timeframe selectors, mode toggles, and a dynamic legend for efficient analysis of symbol interdependencies.

Fibonacci in Forex (Part I): Examining the Price-Time Relationship

How does the market observe Fibonacci-based relationships? This sequence, where each subsequent number is equal to the sum of the two previous ones (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21...), not only describes the growth of the rabbit population. We will consider the Pythagorean hypothesis that everything in the world is subject to certain relationships of numbers...

Market Simulation (Part 04): Creating the C_Orders Class (I)

In this article, we will start creating the C_Orders class to be able to send orders to the trading server. We'll do this little by little, as our goal is to explain in detail how this will happen through the messaging system.

Python-MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester (Part 02): Dealing with Bars, Ticks, and Overloading Built-in Functions in a Simulator

In this article, we introduce functions similar to those provided by the Python-MetaTrader 5 module, providing a simulator with a familiar interface and a custom way of handling bars and ticks internally.

Reimagining Classic Strategies (Part 21): Bollinger Bands And RSI Ensemble Strategy Discovery

This article explores the development of an ensemble algorithmic trading strategy for the EURUSD market that combines the Bollinger Bands and the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). Initial rule-based strategies produced high-quality signals but suffered from low trade frequency and limited profitability. Multiple iterations of the strategy were evaluated, revealing flaws in our understanding of the market, increased noise, and degraded performance. By appropriately employing statistical learning algorithms, shifting the modeling target to technical indicators, applying proper scaling, and combining machine learning forecasts with classical trading rules, the final strategy achieved significantly improved profitability and trade frequency while maintaining acceptable signal quality.

Forex arbitrage trading: Analyzing synthetic currencies movements and their mean reversion

In this article, we will examine the movements of synthetic currencies using Python and MQL5 and explore how feasible Forex arbitrage is today. We will also consider ready-made Python code for analyzing synthetic currencies and share more details on what synthetic currencies are in Forex.

Creating Custom Indicators in MQL5 (Part 5): WaveTrend Crossover Evolution Using Canvas for Fog Gradients, Signal Bubbles, and Risk Management

In this article, we enhance the Smart WaveTrend Crossover indicator in MQL5 by integrating canvas-based drawing for fog gradient overlays, signal boxes that detect breakouts, and customizable buy/sell bubbles or triangles for visual alerts. We incorporate risk management features with dynamic take-profit and stop-loss levels calculated via candle multipliers or percentages, displayed through lines and a table, alongside options for trend filtering and box extensions.

Creating volatility forecast indicator using Python

In this article, we will forecast future extreme volatility using binary classification. Besides, we will develop an extreme volatility forecast indicator using machine learning.

MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 12): Enhancing the Correlation Matrix Dashboard with Interactivity

In this article, we enhance the correlation matrix dashboard in MQL5 with interactive features like panel dragging, minimizing/maximizing, hover effects on buttons and timeframes, and mouse event handling for improved user experience. We add sorting of symbols by average correlation strength in ascending/descending modes, toggle between correlation and p-value views, and incorporate light/dark theme switching with dynamic color updates.

Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 10): Detecting Structural Breaks

This article presents the Chow test for detecting structural breaks in pair relationships and the application of the Cumulative Sum of Squares - CUSUM - for structural breaks monitoring and early detection. The article uses the Nvidia/Intel partnership announcement and the US Gov foreign trade tariff announcement as examples of slope inversion and intercept shift, respectively. Python scripts for all the tests are provided.

MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 13): Creating a Canvas-Based Price Dashboard with Graph and Stats Panels

In this article, we develop a canvas-based price dashboard in MQL5 using the CCanvas class to create interactive panels for visualizing recent price graphs and account statistics, with support for background images, fog effects, and gradient fills. The system includes draggable and resizable features via mouse event handling, theme toggling between dark and light modes with dynamic color adjustments, and minimize/maximize controls for efficient chart space management.

The article presents the Central Force Optimization (CFO) algorithm inspired by the laws of gravity. It explores how principles of physical attraction can solve optimization problems where "heavier" solutions attract less successful counterparts.

Python-MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester (Part 04): Tester 101

In this fascinating article, we build our very first trading robot in the simulator and run a strategy testing action that resembles how the MetaTrader 5 strategy tester works, then compare the outcome produced in a custom simulation against our favorite terminal.

Larry Williams Market Secrets (Part 7): An Empirical Study of the Trade Day of the Week Concept

An empirical study of Larry Williams’ Trade Day of the Week concept, showing how time-based market bias can be measured, tested, and applied using MQL5. This article presents a practical framework for analyzing win rates and performance across trading days to improve short-term trading systems.

Developing Trend Trading Strategies Using Machine Learning

This study introduces a novel methodology for the development of trend-following trading strategies. This section describes the process of annotating training data and using it to train classifiers. This process yields fully operational trading systems designed to run on MetaTrader 5.

MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 14): Pixel-Perfect Scrollable Text Canvas with Antialiasing and Rounded Scrollbar

In this article, we enhance the canvas-based price dashboard in MQL5 by adding a pixel-perfect scrollable text panel for usage guides, overcoming native scrolling limitations through custom antialiasing and a rounded scrollbar design with hover-expand functionality. The text panel supports themed backgrounds with opacity, dynamic line wrapping for content like instructions and contacts, and interactive navigation via up/down buttons, slider dragging, and mouse wheel scrolling within the body area.

Creating Custom Indicators in MQL5 (Part 6): Evolving RSI Calculations with Smoothing, Hue Shifts, and Multi-Timeframe Support

In this article, we build a versatile RSI indicator in MQL5 supporting multiple variants, data sources, and smoothing methods for improved analysis. We add hue shifts for color visuals, dynamic boundaries for overbought/oversold zones, and notifications for trend alerts. It includes multi-timeframe support with interpolation, offering us a customizable RSI tool for diverse strategies.

Tracking Account Dynamics: Balance, Equity, and Floating P/L Visualization in MQL5

Create a custom MT5 indicator that processes the entire deal history and plots starting balance, balance, equity, and floating P/L as continuous curves. It updates per bar, aggregates positions across symbols, and avoids external dependencies through local caching. Use it to inspect equity–balance divergence, realized vs. unrealized results, and the timing of risk deployment.